\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 486 Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) )
The company issued the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022:
21. Annual income: 13.1 billion (YoY + 81%), 2 billion (YoY + 214%) attributable to the parent, and 1.87 billion (YoY + 252%) deducted
21q4: the income is 4.8 billion (YoY + 57%), 680 million (YoY + 74%) belongs to the parent, and 650 million (YoY + 78%) is deducted.
22q1: the income is 3.2 billion (YoY + 44%), the parent is 420 million (YoY + 27%), and the deduction is 380 million (YoY + 20%)
22q1 has 91 million equity incentive expenses (YoY + 90 million). Considering the income tax rate of 15%, it will be returned to the parent company + 50%.
The dividend rate in 2021 is 31.4%.
Revenue splitting: independent high growth, OEM reduction
Volume and price in 2021: both volume and price rise, which is superior to the industry
Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) brand: revenue + 58%, volume + 11%, price + 43%. The volume increase is better than that of the industry.
Tianke brand: revenue + 308%, volume + 242%, price + 19%. Floor washer volume + Fuwan 2.0 product upgrade price increase.
We split the expected results of a single quarter:
\u3000\u Dayu Water-Saving Group Co.Ltd(300021) Q4:
Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) brand: revenue of about 2.7 billion (YoY + 60%), expected China + 65%, overseas + 57%;
Tianke brand: the revenue is about 2 billion yuan (YoY + 154%), which is expected to be + 203% in China and + 78% overseas;
OEM of clean small electricity: revenue of about 180 million (yoy-66%)
\u3000\u Gifore Agricultural Science & Technology Service Co.Ltd(300022) Q1:
Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) brand: revenue of about 1.7 billion (YoY + 50%), expected China + 50%, overseas + 50%
Tianke brand: revenue of about 1.3 billion (YoY + 85%), expected to be + 110% in China and + 40% overseas
Clean small power OEM: revenue of about 150 million (yoy-58%)
From the perspective of income growth trend:
① the growth rate of total revenue was dragged down by the company’s initiative to reduce OEM business, and the growth of pure independent brands was stronger, with Q1 revenue + 65%;
China’s tiktok and tiktok new channels continue to expand, and we expect that the trembling sound has expanded to 10-15%.
③ the company continues to expand its channel layout overseas, expand offline stores in the United States and re launch online stores in Europe and Japan
Channel progress has also been made in these markets.
Profit: impact of Q1 deposit equity incentive fee
21q4: gross profit margin 55% (YoY + 10PCT), net profit margin 14% (YoY + 1.4pct).
The gross profit margin increased significantly, which is expected to be mainly due to the increase in the proportion of high gross profit margin products such as X1 after the promotion of the new products in the current period, and the reduction of low gross profit margin OEM business. However, in the same period, the investment of sales expenses also increased, superimposed with the impact of some equity incentives, and the net interest rate remained relatively stable.
22q1: gross profit margin 50% (YoY + 2.8pct), net profit margin 13% (yoy-1.8pct).
The decline of Q1 net interest rate is mainly due to the impact of 91 million equity incentive expenses. Considering income tax, it is estimated that the net interest rate after adding back is about 15.6% (YoY + 0.6pct). As the amortization of incentive expenses is relatively fixed, the impact of Q1 off-season is relatively large, and the impact on net interest rate in subsequent peak seasons is expected to be reduced. If the incentive fee is ignored, the company is still in the rising channel of net interest rate under the scale effect.
Business tracking: comprehensive layout, leading style.
In 2022, the company’s strategic layout:
① both high-end and low-end products are adopted, and the product price band continues to expand. Sweeper: Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) launched T10 series, lowering the entry threshold of self-cleaning + self dust collection; Yeedi complemented the low-end price band and launched 2999 self-cleaning K10; Floor washing machine: Tianke Xinfa Fuwan 3.0, with minimally invasive functions, continues to raise the price ceiling of the industry to 4990 yuan. Meanwhile, low terminal brand youni has newly arranged a thousand yuan entry-level floor washing machine.
Second, the channel layout is diversified, and we must seize the two tiktok channels and the channels of competition. China: tiktok is still in the early stage of brand building, and the line shop system is also continuing to break through. Overseas: after the progress of offline store entry in the United States, it is expected to break through online again; Japan, Europe and other markets have also carried out new channel layout.
We believe that: more comprehensive products + more comprehensive channels are expected to continue to drive the growth of the company at home and abroad this year, and also help the company maintain a leading position in terms of share.
Investment suggestion: buy rating.
The current channel and product layout of the company continues to be comprehensive. At the same time, the layout of upstream and downstream is also strengthened, and the leading style is remarkable. It is continuously recommended to pay attention to the long-term value after the correction. In the short term, the profit forecast is adjusted according to the equity incentive expenses. The annual profit of 22-23 is expected to be 2.53 billion yuan and 3.51 billion yuan (the previous value is 2.79 billion and 3.63 billion yuan), yoy + 26% and 39%, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
Supply chain problems such as shipping / chips worsened, the epidemic hit offline channels, and the sales of new products were less than expected
