\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 699 Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) )
Key investment points
The provision for investment losses and asset impairment affected the release of performance in 2021, and the gross profit margin reached a new high in the fourth quarter: in 2021, the company realized a revenue of 45.147 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.83%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.708 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 247.36%. In the fourth quarter, the company realized a revenue of 14.221 billion yuan, an increase of 79.86% year-on-year and 7.82% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 883 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54.81% and a month on month decrease of 64.66%; The gross profit margin was 57.59%, a record high, and the net profit margin was 6.21%. The reason why the growth rate of net profit in the fourth quarter was lower than expected was that the coal based clean energy projects associated with the company (equity accounted for 28.46%) reported a loss of 1.715 billion yuan and the provision for asset impairment loss of 345 million yuan in the fourth quarter. In 2021, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company were 48.68% and 14.86% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 15.06 and 7.42 percentage points respectively. The dividend scheme is 6.73 yuan for every 10 shares, and the dividend ratio is 30%.
The rise in coal prices led to a significant increase in profits: in 2021, the company achieved a coal sales volume of 50.35 million tons, a slight increase of 3.88% year-on-year; The average selling price of coal was 794 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 70.70%, of which the price of injected coal, the company's core product, was 1079 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 63.38%; The sales cost per ton of coal was 374 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.22%; The gross profit per ton of coal was 420 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 152.36%. The coal sector achieved a gross profit of 21.14 billion yuan, a significant increase of 162.18% over the same period last year.
Coke price rose and sales volume decreased slightly: in 2021, the company's coke sales volume was 1.9 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.95%; The average selling price of coke was 2552 yuan / ton, up 55.71% year-on-year; The cost per ton of coke was 2187 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 62.47%; The gross profit per ton of coke was 364 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.59%; The coke sector contributed a gross profit of 692 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.91%.
In the first quarter of 2022, the net profit improved significantly year-on-year and month on month: in the first quarter, the company realized a revenue of 13.855 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.63% and a month on month decrease of 2.57%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.466 billion yuan, an increase of 55.36% year-on-year and 179.31% month on month; The gross profit margin is 42.86% and the net profit margin is 17.80%.
Future coal coke increment is expected: in terms of coal, as of 2021, the company's Mengjia kiln has increased its production capacity by 1.8 million tons. At the same time, Yitian coal industry, Heilongguan, cilinshan, Xinliangyou and Wenzhuang also have increment expectations. In 2022, the company's coal production and sales volume may increase year-on-year. In terms of coke, the new 1.4 million ton coking project of Lu'an coking company has entered the trial production stage. It is expected that the coke production and sales volume of the company may increase significantly in 2022.
Investment suggestion: our company predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 8.491 billion yuan, 7.628 billion yuan and 5.698 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding valuations are 6.32/7.04/9.42 times PE respectively, maintaining the proposal of increasing Holdings - A.
Risk tip: economic growth is less than expected; The unexpected impact of environmental protection supervision on coal production and consumption; The nuclear increase and commissioning of new capacity did not meet expectations; Major safety accidents.
