\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 88 Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) )
Revenue improved quarter by quarter in 2021, and 2022q1 profit remained under short-term pressure, maintaining the "buy" rating
The company's revenue in 2021 / 2022q1 was 8.037 billion yuan (- 35.87%) / 2.322 billion yuan (+ 2.37%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.239 billion yuan (- 67.48%) / 357 million yuan (- 25.69%), which was mainly due to the high base brought by overseas epidemic prevention material orders in 2020, and the commodity price returned to normal in 2021. Some overseas high price orders were delivered in 2021q1. Considering the rising price of raw materials and the company's equity incentive expenses, we lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024: it is estimated that the company's net profit from 20222024 will be 14.29 (- 1.42) / 17.14 (- 1.86) / 1.978 billion yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS will be 3.35/4.02/4.64 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price will be 17.5/14.6/12.6 times respectively. The company's medical sector and consumer sector are driven by two wheels, and its products remain in the lead. Through investment and M & A, it is optimistic about the long-term steady growth of performance and maintains the company's "buy" rating.
Medical consumables: expand the channel width and jointly build a high-end wound dressing faucet with Longtai
In 2021, the income of medical consumables was 3.922 billion yuan (- 56.03%). Foreign trade income is 1.52 billion yuan (- 74%); China's hospital channel reached 1.25 billion yuan (+ 12%), an increase of more than 500% over 2019; The revenue of end C (drugstore + e-commerce) was 1.01 billion yuan (+ 3%), an increase of more than 400% compared with 2019, and the proportion of e-commerce increased to 17%.
Consumer goods for healthy living: the growth rate of textile products is bright, and the self owned e-commerce platform maintains rapid growth
In 2021, the income of healthy consumer goods was 4.054 billion yuan (+ 15.27%). The proportion of e-commerce / offline stores / supermarkets / major customers was 63% / 30% / 5% / 2%, and the growth rate was + 9% / + 29% / + 51% / - 17% respectively. The growth rate of textile category is bright, and the infant / adult clothing will increase by 39% / 52% respectively in 2021. The revenue of its own platforms such as offline store official website and applet increased by 45% year-on-year. By the end of 2021, there were 345 stores in the consumer goods sector, 322 Direct stores (+ 51) and 23 franchise stores (+ 18). 320 in cotton era (+ 63), 10 in Jinliang life (+ 2).
The profitability is higher than the level before the epidemic, and the strategic stock is prepared to cope with the price rise of raw materials
Gross profit margin: the gross profit margin in 2021 / 2022q1 is 49.9% (- 9.7pct) / 47.8% (- 6.9pct). Expense side: during 2021 / 2022q1, the expense rate of the company is 32.8% (+ 11.7pct) / 28.9% (+ 0.6pct) respectively. Parent net interest rate: the parent net interest rate in 2021 / 2022q1 is 15.4% (- 15.0pct) / 15.4% (- 5.8pct), which is still higher than the level before the epidemic. Inventory: at the end of 2021, the overall / medical / consumer inventory amount was 1.597 billion yuan (+ 31%) / 517 million yuan (- 2%) / 1.081 billion yuan (+ 57%). Accounts receivable: at the end of 2021 / 2022q1, accounts receivable were 776 million yuan (- 8%) / 934 million yuan. Cash flow: in 2021 / 2022q1, the net operating cash flow was 872 million yuan (- 82%) / 397 million yuan (+ 111%). The balance of cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2022q1 was 3.8 billion yuan (- 15%).
Risk tip: downstream market demand fluctuates, customer development is less than expected, and raw material prices and exchange rates fluctuate.
