\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 779 Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) )
Event: the company disclosed the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the operating revenue reached 4.632 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 63.96%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.216 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 67.51%. 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 1.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.05%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 199 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 13.43%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 198 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 14.77%. 22q1 achieved an operating revenue of 1.415 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 363 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 13.54%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company was 357 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 12.19%.
The performance increased sharply in 2021, and the short-term performance of 22q1 was under pressure. In terms of products, the revenue of high-end liquor in 2021 was 4.519 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 54%, and the gross profit margin increased by + 0.3pct to 85%; The revenue of mid-range liquor was 102 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 34% and a year-on-year -1pct to 60% gross profit margin. In 2022q1, the revenue of high-grade liquor was 1.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12%, and the gross profit margin was – 0.3pct to 85% year-on-year; The revenue of mid-range liquor was 41 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 57%, and the gross profit margin was + 5pct to 67% year-on-year. Among the eight core markets, Henan and Hunan are affected by the epidemic and flood, while the other six markets maintain a strong growth trend. Considering that the company has paid attention to brand building and marketing breakthrough since 21 years, increased media investment around the Chengdu base market, and started to carry out government group purchase to continuously create a brand home atmosphere, which is expected to reverse the decline and contribute to the increment to a certain extent.
Publicity expenses are put into centralized use, and the net interest rate of 22q1 is under pressure. In 2021, the annual gross profit margin was 84.51%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.32pct, mainly due to the upgrading of product structure; 22q1 gross profit margin was 84.92%, unchanged year-on-year. In 2021, the sales expense ratio was 26.5%, excluding the impact of changes in accounting policies, with a year-on-year increase of -0.8pct; The sales expense rate of 22q1 was 29.0%, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.3pct, mainly due to the significant increase in advertising expenses in the first quarter. In 2021, the management expense rate was 7.03%, year-on-year -2.33pct, and in 22q1, the management expense rate was 7.01%, year-on-year + 2.05pct. Based on the above, the company’s net interest rate in 2021 was 25.89%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.56pct; The net interest rate of 22q1 was 25.63%, with a year-on-year increase of -8.19pct, mainly due to the increase of expenses and the impact of the epidemic.
Product upgrading, marketing breakthrough, category expansion, innovation and change, and long-term development of layout. Since the new general manager took over, the company has obvious intention of innovation and change, and proposed to focus on high-end brand, product innovation and upgrading and marketing breakthrough, mainly through increasing brand launch, product renewal and upgrading and marketing model innovation to create a growth driver. Among them, the high-end sales company model not only helps wells bypass the restrictions of the mechanism, but also helps to directly improve the channel control of wineries. The market order of collections and above products is expected to be actively improved and is expected to achieve scale expansion steadily. In the long run, the model innovation attempts of the group buying business unit and high-end companies are conducive to the company’s accumulation of channel operation experience, the realization of iterative channel playing methods, and the further exertion of its own advantages in brand, quality and channel network,
Investment suggestion: considering that the company’s business goal in 2022 is to increase revenue and profit by more than 15% year-on-year, it is expected that the earnings per share in 20222024 will be 2.87, 3.52 and 4.29 yuan, with a target price of 99 yuan, corresponding to 2023pe28x, and a Buy-A rating.
Risk tip: the promotion of collection is not as expected; The acceptance of the new well platform is lower than expected, and the epidemic continues to affect consumption.
