In the past two weeks (2022 / 04 / 042022 / 04 / 17), the CSI 300 fell by 2.04%, the gem index fell by 7.75%, and the food and beverage (CITIC) index rose by 2.84%, with a relative return of + 4.88% compared with the CSI 300, ranking third among the 29 sub industries of CITIC. Among the molecular sectors, the meat products sector has increased by 3.20% in the past two weeks, the seasoning sector has increased by 1.95% in the past two weeks, the snack food sector has increased by 5.86% in the past two weeks, the quick-frozen food sector has increased by 11.89% in the past two weeks, and other food sectors have decreased by 2.63% in the past two weeks.
Sector valuation level: the PE (TTM) valuation of the food sector this week reached 36.96x, lower than the 8-year average (37.56x) and the 5-year average (38.83x). This week’s sector valuation has increased compared with the previous period, among which the PE valuation of meat products / condiments / snack food / quick frozen food / other food is 24.61/54.90/31.65/43.99/26.27 times respectively, which is -1.77% / 4.69% / – 20.04% / – 52.02% / – 44.20% higher than the 8-year average valuation. The valuation of condiment sector is slightly higher than the historical level, while meat products, snack food, quick-frozen food and other food sectors are at a historically low level.
The share price of ; The five stocks with high trading volume are Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) / Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) / Xiwang Foodstuffs Co.Ltd(000639) / Shanghai Maling Aquarius Co.Ltd(600073) / Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) .
The state of the land: the last two weeks: the last two weeks of the past two weeks of the week: the one of the two weeks of the ‘s Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) \ / Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) shows capital outflow going north. Zhou Heiya showed an outflow of funds going south, and Yihai International showed an inflow of funds going south.
Industry highlights: 1) bangbangxiang delivery table HKEx is the largest comprehensive service provider of canteen food supply chain in Shanghai; 2) In March, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, affecting the CPI to decline by about 0.09%; 3) The epidemic forced the acceleration of capitalization, and the third wave of catering enterprises’ listing came.
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Investment proposal and investment object
The sector rebounded in the past two weeks. As Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council in the middle of the week, the market has improved expectations on policy and the pessimism has eased; On April 15, the central bank announced the RRR reduction policy, and the market is expected to continue to respond next week. In terms of fundamentals, the current industry demand is still at the bottom, and the subsequent recovery is still uncertain. In the short-term dimension, we suggest giving priority to the targets with strong certainty of cost decline, less impact on demand and undervalued value. In the long-term dimension, we suggest paying attention to the targets with clear growth logic and expected increase in market share under this round of industry pressure, and grasping the layout opportunities under the current valuation decline.
Condiments: in recent two weeks, the epidemic situation in many parts of the country is still serious, the recovery trend of the demand side (especially the catering side) remains to be seen, and the inventory pressure of key enterprises is expected to increase; The cost side of the industry is also facing greater pressure. At present, in the short-term dimension, we suggest paying attention to Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) ( Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , not rated) which has strong certainty of cost reduction and is expected to meet the performance inflection point under the effect of price increase. In the medium and long-term dimension, we suggest to grasp the layout opportunities of the subject matter with a large number of current valuation declines, such as Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) ( Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , buy), which has strong pricing power in the industry, and is expected to bring additional profit elasticity in case of subsequent decline in shipping costs and RMB depreciation. Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) ( Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , not rated) which is expected to improve its market share and stable operating performance under the current round of industrial pressure.
Snack food: in the short-term dimension, we suggest paying attention to Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) ( Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , buy) with stable operation, effective cultivation of the second growth curve, low cost pressure and marginal improvement expected from price increase. In the medium and long term dimension, due to the continuous reform of companies under the pressure of the industry, we suggest paying attention to the reform trend of the industry and grasping the investment opportunities brought by the gradual emergence of the reform results, such as Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) ( Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , buy), accelerating the deployment of offline channels Three Squirrels Inc(300783) ( Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , not rated), the end of store adjustment and the increase of store expansion speed is expected to accelerate Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) ( Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) , overweight).
Quick frozen food: the impact of the spread of the epidemic in many places on the catering end may continue in Q2. Home hoarding has a certain driving effect on the dynamic sales of the C end. The overall demand is still disturbed, but the market expectation for the repair of the catering industry chain is heating up this week. It is suggested to pay attention to Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) ( Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , not rated) and Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) ( Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , overweight) with obvious decline in valuation and expected to benefit from terminal recovery in the next 1-2 quarters.
Halogen products: it is suggested to pay continuous attention to Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) ( Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , buy). According to the recent channel research, juewe opened more than 600 new stores in the first quarter, exceeding the opening competition index. It opened stores intensively at the beginning of the year, and the stores experienced a climbing period ahead of time, contributing more to the annual revenue. In addition, through the plan of starting a prairie fire, it is suggested to train shop assistants to open stores, develop the county-level sinking market, and cooperate with the plan of accepting all rivers to promote regional chains The acquisition of high-quality self-employed stores has opened space and smooth logic. At present, the valuation is at a historical low. It is suggested to choose the layout. It is suggested to pay attention to Zhou Heiya (01458, not rated) who is in the process of franchise and supply chain optimization.
Baking and tea raw materials: at present, the price of oil and other raw materials is still at a high level, but the strong demand in the downstream determines that expanding production capacity and seizing market share is the main line of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the leader of frozen baking Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) ( Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , not rated) and the supplier of tea vegetable fat powder raw materials Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) ( Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) , not rated).
Risk tips
Rising raw material costs, intensified industry competition, sudden food safety incidents, etc
