Tracking of driving factors: the downward trend of real estate remains unchanged, and the furniture export is full of toughness
In March 2022, the residential sales area reached 1284274 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.20%, and the year-on-year decrease continued to expand. Even considering the impact of the epidemic, the decline in sales area in a single month in March is still significantly greater than that in March 2020. On the whole, the traditional “little spring” has not come, and the property market is still cold and piercing. Although the second-hand housing market in some cities such as Zhengzhou and Beijing has warmed up, the downward trend of the market remains unchanged. Following the relaxation of loan and purchase restrictions in Zhengzhou, Lanzhou, another provincial capital, has also made a significant adjustment to the real estate policy recently, with greater stimulus and wider scope. But on the whole, the policy strength in March is still weak. Due to the great pressure of the epidemic on economic growth, we still expect more second tier cities to launch substantive easing policies. In terms of completion, the completed residential area reached 34.07 million square meters in March 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 15.34%. On the whole, the completion data, both in terms of scale and decline, are at a low level since 2018. With the impact of the epidemic and the continuous thunderstorm of real estate enterprises, the completion and delivery situation is poor, continuing the downturn of the previous two months.
In the U.S. furniture market, the sales (quarterly survey) of furniture and home furnishings in the United States in February reached 10.501 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.09%, and the demand is still good. In terms of exports, the export volume of furniture and parts reached US $5.568 billion in March, a year-on-year increase of 7.40%, and the export growth rate changed from negative to positive. From January to March 2022, the cumulative export of furniture increased by 3.9% year-on-year. Overall, the resilience of exports is still. We expect that under the condition of high base in 2021, furniture exports will still maintain a relatively good trend in 2022, but the overall growth rate is expected to be lower than that in 2021.
Industry boom tracking: the retail of furniture and household appliances is sluggish, and the sales of integrated stoves are weak
In March, the retail sales of furniture in a single month reached 12.6 billion yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year, continuing the previous downturn, and the industry is expected to further shuffle. In March, the retail sales of household appliances reached 75.2 billion yuan in a single month, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. With the decline of real estate sales and the continuous impact of the epidemic, the sales of furniture and household appliances are sluggish. With the arrival of the annual report season, the performance differentiation of enterprises that recently released annual reports in 2021 is more obvious Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) by the impact of Evergrande thunderstorm, the net profit attributable to the parent decreased to 123 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 89.72%. In 2021 Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) achieved an operating revenue of 3.448 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.61%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 338 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.49%.
In terms of household appliances, in March, the online retail sales of the integrated stove industry increased by 12.1% year-on-year, and the average price of products was 8051 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, showing a trend of “price rise and volume fall”. Affected by the epidemic situation and other factors, the sales of integrated stoves in March was relatively weak. Similar to integrated stoves, the sales of independent clothes dryers also declined in March. In March, the online sales of independent clothes dryers fell by 15.6%, and the average price rose to 4403 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. From the perspective of competition pattern, the coexistence of Haier and little swan is still relatively obvious. Haier’s retail share reached 28.0%, up 5.8% year-on-year. The market share of Little Swan rose to 21.5%, up 5.0% year-on-year. On the whole, the concentration of the industry has improved. On the whole, with the recovery of real estate still waiting for some time, we believe that we should pay more attention to the leading enterprises that seize the opportunity of industry reshuffle and the target enterprises with stronger product consumption attributes, so as to reduce the impact of real estate on industrial chain enterprises as much as possible.
