Core view: in March 2022, the growth rate of business volume in the industry decreased year-on-year, and the single ticket price continued to be strong. Considering the good performance of unit price in 2022 and the continuous policy supervision, we believe that the net profit of Tongda company will still increase significantly year-on-year. It is suggested to actively grasp the investment opportunities of Tongda company in 2022.
Volume: the growth rate of express business volume in March was – 3.14%. In March, the volume of express delivery business completed 8.54 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 3.14%, mainly due to the sealing and control management implemented by some cities in China due to the epidemic situation. In March, the cumulative business volume of Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / SF express was 14.2/15.8/9.9/800 million tickets respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 5% / 4% / 9% / – 8%. In terms of share, the market shares of Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / Shunfeng in March were 17% / 19% / 12% / 9% respectively, with a year-on-year change of + 1.3 / + 1.3 / + 1.3 / – 0.5 percentage points. Under the influence of the epidemic, the growth rate of express business volume of enterprises decreased significantly month on month in March. On April 11, many departments emphasized “ensuring the smooth operation of national logistics”. Since April 17, the number of new cases in Shanghai has shown a downward trend. The impact of the epidemic on the delivery volume needs to be continuously observed.
Price: the unit price of express delivery in March is still strong. In March, the business income of national express service enterprises decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, reaching 81.85 billion yuan. Among them, the logistics business revenue of Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / SF express was 3.5/41/25/12.5 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 16% / 23% / 24% / – 6%. In terms of single ticket revenue, the single ticket revenue of Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / SF Express Division was 2.48/2.59/2.56/15.52 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of 10.1% / 18.3% / 13.8% / 2.2% respectively. In the middle and late March, the industry has entered the off-season, and the prices of enterprises are still strong, slightly exceeding our expectations. The epidemic and the rise of oil prices are one of the reasons for the strong price performance. The unit prices of Yuantong and Shentong decreased month on month, which is in line with the seasonal law of price reduction in the off-season, but still increased significantly year-on-year. Yunda’s single ticket revenue increased by 11% month on month, while Yuantong’s and Shentong’s single ticket revenue decreased by 6.8% and 1.6% month on month respectively. In terms of grain producing areas, Yiwu completed 830 million pieces of business in March, with a unit price of 307 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%.
Outlook: the strong supervision situation in 2022 is likely to continue, and the previous weak competition state of major enterprises is not expected to change. The epidemic affects the business volume, but the impact on profits is limited. We believe that the industry will still be in the repair cycle of easing competition in 2022, and the off-season price will decline month on month, but the year-on-year probability will still increase significantly.
Express is still in the repair cycle and continues to recommend Tongda head enterprise and S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) . Tongda is still in the cycle of policy control and competitive repair. At present, the industry price is still strong. We believe that under the situation of weak competition among enterprises, the cost rise caused by the epidemic and oil price is expected to be transmitted to the price side. The single ticket profit rate of the express industry in 2022 will be better than that in 2021. We are optimistic about the price elasticity of the top enterprises in 2022 and continue to pay attention to the price trend of the industry in the off-season S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) production capacity deployment is gradually slowing down, capacity utilization is gradually climbing, capacity cycle and management cycle are superimposed, and the certainty of marginal repair is high. Maintain the “buy” rating of Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , and China Express.
Risk warning events: the implementation of relevant policies is still uncertain, and the price war may still intensify; Risk of the impact of the epidemic on business; Risk of oil price fluctuation; If the long-term cost curve of the industry is flat, it will not be conducive to the differentiation between enterprises.
