Core view
Covid-19 small molecule drug has become a key means of anti epidemic, and China’s R & D pipeline has made continuous progress. Covid-19 small molecule drug has obvious advantages, its efficacy is resistant to mutation in theory, and is less limited in medication mode, storage and transportation and production capacity. It is expected to become a key means of anti epidemic in the post epidemic era, and has great application prospects and commercial value. The global covid-19 small molecule drug R & D pipeline continues to develop. Paxlovid and molnupiravir of overseas Pfizer have been approved and commercialized in many countries, and the R & D progress is leading. China is rich in small molecule drugs under research. Vv116 of Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) and prochloramide of developing pharmaceutical industry and azvudine of real organisms have entered phase III clinic first, and their approval for listing is imminent, which deserves continuous attention.
The strong demand for API intermediates brings opportunities for upstream related enterprises. The number of covid-19 virus patients continues to expand, and the demand for covid-19 small molecule drugs continues, resulting in a large demand for upstream APIs and intermediates. It is suggested that Chinese chemical enterprises that pay attention to key APIs and intermediates, such as the manufacturers of intermediates SM1, SM2, carbonic anhydride and azabicycles required for the synthesis of paxlovid, the manufacturers of uridine required for the synthesis of molnupiravir, and the manufacturers of intermediates related to the synthesis path of the pipeline under research. These enterprises are expected to obtain a large number of orders and usher in new increment.
Approved small molecule drugs have begun large-scale commercialization, and Chinese MPP authorized enterprises deserve attention. Pfizer paxlovid and mosadon molnupiravir have begun global commercialization and are expected to become the world’s most important covid-19 drugs. From the perspective of the situation in the United States, Pfizer paxlovid and mosadon molnupiravir have completed 11 distributions since they were approved in December and November last year, respectively. At present, they account for 48% of the distribution dose of covid-19 therapeutic drugs. The trend of large-scale use of covid-19 small molecule drugs is expected to continue. Several generic drug enterprises in China have been authorized by MPP to obtain the patent implementation license of Pfizer paxlovid or MSD molnupiravir, and can produce and supply related generic drugs. MPP authorization brings the production and sales of covid-19 small molecule drugs to enterprises and helps control the epidemic situation. Relevant cdmo enterprises deserve attention.
Investment proposal and investment object
Overall, covid-19 small molecule drugs will become the key to anti epidemic and bring a lot of investment opportunities in the field of biomedicine. It is suggested to pay attention to the following directions: ① domestic leading enterprises in the research and development of new crown small molecule drugs, such as Junshi bio-u ( Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , not rated). ② Covid-19 manufacturers of key API intermediates required for small molecule drugs, such as Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) ( Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) , Unrated), Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) ( Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , Unrated), Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) ( Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) , Unrated). ③ Covid-19 small molecule drug MPP China authorized enterprises, such as Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) ( Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) , buy), Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) ( Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , not rated), Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) ( Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , not rated), Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) ( Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , not rated), Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) ( Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , not rated), etc.
Risk tips
The risk of drug R & D failure, the risk that the progress of drug R & D is less than expected, and the risk of insufficient production capacity of APIs and preparations
