Event overview:
On April 21 Beijing time, Tesla released 2022q1 financial report:
2022q1 achieved a single quarter revenue of US $18.76 billion, with a year-on-year / month on month ratio of + 80.5% / + 5.9% respectively; The sales volume was about 310000 vehicles, with a year-on-year / month on month ratio of + 67.7% / + 0.5% respectively; The gross profit margin of automobile business reached 32.9%, a record high; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was US $3.32 billion, with a year-on-year / month on month ratio of + 657.5% / + 43.0% respectively.
Analysis and judgment:
The financial performance has broken the historical record, and the new factory has boosted the performance continuously
Revenue side: in 2022q1, the total revenue of the company was US $18.76 billion, of which the revenue of automobile business was US $16.86 billion, with a year-on-year / month on month increase of 87.3% and 5.6% respectively. Despite the supply chain problems and capacity decline caused by the epidemic, the company still achieved the best historical vehicle delivery in a single quarter. In terms of energy business, the total revenue of 022q1 reached US $620 million, with a year-on-year / month on month ratio of + 24.7% / – 10.5% respectively. The energy business is more affected by the macro environment than the automobile business. The chip and parts supply chain of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) system are impacted. Therefore, the quarterly installed capacity decreased significantly, with a year-on-year / month on month ratio of – 47.8% / – 43.5% respectively. The revenue from services and other businesses in 2022q1 was $1.28 billion, with a year-on-year / month on month ratio of + 43% / + 20% respectively, mainly due to the strong sales of used cars and the growth of maintenance services.
Profit side: in 2022q1, the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders reached US $3.32 billion and reached a new high under GAAP standards, with a year-on-year / month on month ratio of + 657.5% / + 43.0% respectively. In terms of gross profit, with the continuous rise of raw material prices and logistics prices, the gross profit margin of the company’s automobile business is still rising steadily. After excluding the integral income of new energy vehicles, the gross profit margin of the automobile business has reached 30.0% for the first time in history. The increase of gross profit margin is mainly due to the rise of automobile ASP (2022q1 reached US $52000, with a year-on-year / month on month increase of 13.7% / 2.9% respectively) and the shift of product sales matrix to more profitable models, such as modely. In terms of operating income, after excluding equity incentive expenses, the operating profit margin exceeded 20% for the first time in history, with a year-on-year / month on month ratio of + 9.8% / + 3.5% respectively. We expect Tesla‘s profit margin will rise further in the future with the expansion of the application scope of integrated die casting process and efficient operation and management ability.
Cost side: the R & D cost of 2022q1 company is USD 870 million, with a year-on-year / month on month ratio of + 29.9% / + 16.9% respectively; The R & D expense ratio was 4.6%, which was basically the same as that of 2021; The sales management expense was USD 990 million, with a year-on-year / month on month ratio of – 6.1% / – 33.6% respectively; The sales and management expense rate was 5.3%, with a significant year-on-year / month on month decrease of – 4.9ppt / – 3.1ppt respectively. The decrease of expense rate is mainly due to the scale effect brought by the increase of sales and lower equity incentive expenditure.
Capacity side: due to the impact of the epidemic, the Shanghai factory lost some capacity, but the company believes that the Shanghai factory will quickly restore capacity in late April, and the weekly output may break the historical record. The company expects that the total output of Shanghai plant in 2022q2 will be similar to that in 2022q1. The factories in Berlin and Texas have been officially opened in April and are in the stage of capacity climbing. The current planned annual capacity is 500000 vehicles. The Berlin plant will still deliver 2170 battery packs, but musk said it is expected to gradually turn to 4680 by the end of this year. The Texas plant will produce modely based on 4680 battery pack and integrated die cast front body. The company expects that the total output of various models will reach 1.5 million in 2022.
High tech creates a new business, and the future space goes beyond imagination
FSD autopilot: the company said that more than 100000 people have joined the fsdbeta version, which is expected to significantly increase the number of users within the year. The current fsdbeta version is updated about every 2 weeks.
Tesla insurance: collect driving data, provide real-time driving scoring for Tesla owners, and cultivate users’ good driving habits by providing high score users with lower premiums. At the same time, the data of the accident scene will be returned to provide support for the improvement of Tesla‘s software and hardware. The company said it hopes to let 80% of users use Tesla insurance by the end of the year, and then it will be introduced to the world.
Cybertruck: the company says it is expected to achieve mass production next year.
Autonomous Taxi: the company hopes to mass produce unmanned autonomous taxi without steering wheel and pedal from 2024. The company said the product will include a number of exciting new technologies to minimize the comprehensive use cost per kilometer of unmanned taxis. We expect that if the business is launched as planned, it will bring great increment to Tesla’s performance.
Optimus human Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) : at the opening ceremony of the Texas plant, Tesla announced that the first version of this new product is expected to start production in 2023. According to the official description, this Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) is about 172cm tall and 56kg in weight, and can pull about 68kg hard. It was born to “eliminate dangerous, repetitive and boring tasks” so that human beings can focus on happier work. Musk said in the conference call that Tesla’s business is of great importance and its future value may exceed that of automobile business and FSD business.
Strong product power drives China’s high-quality industrial chain to benefit
Tesla technology drives the qualitative change of supply and creates a strong product force that leads the generation, which is mainly reflected in:
1) self developed automatic driving of the whole stack;
2) self made power battery (4680 battery has been mass produced in Dezhou factory). Considering the rapid expansion of the capacity of the new Model3 / y Shanghai plant to about 700000 vehicles, we expect to fully stimulate the upstream supply chain and create historic opportunities for independent suppliers to become bigger and stronger. China’s relevant industrial chains are complete, suppliers respond quickly and have strong cost optimization ability, which well meets the development needs of Tesla’s rapid iteration of products and rapid ramp up of production capacity. Tesla’s supply chain has few levels and a high degree of flattening. Parts enterprises have more opportunities to realize assembly supporting, and the relevant targets are expected to continue to benefit.
Investment suggestions:
Intellectualization will be the core theme of this year. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will accelerate together. We are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of acoustics + chassis by wire + domain controller; Electrification accelerates the development of lightweight, Tesla leads the integrated die casting, and improves the industry concentration while increasing the industry expansion. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
At the same time, the company’s performance verification chain tends to be more flat, and the performance of the company’s supply chain tends to be shorter than that of the traditional vehicle. Recommend Tesla + new forces industrial chain: [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
2. Product dimension:
The transformation of smart electric will reshape the brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises continue to increase the configuration of smart electric, so as to improve the market share and improve the brand:
1) intelligent increment: intelligent driving – [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], the beneficiary [Nextel]; Smart cockpit: Acoustics – [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], smart seat – [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], ceiling glass – [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], lights – [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively);
2) electrification increment: three power [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ]; New energy heat management [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary [ Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tips
The delivery volume failed to meet the expectation due to the delay of the launch progress of new models and the construction progress of production capacity; The sluggish automobile demand leads to the sales volume of new energy vehicles outside China not reaching the expectation; The impact of chip shortage.
