The import of lithium carbonate from Chile increased by 93.84% in March
According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in March, China’s lithium carbonate import volume was 1105127 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 70.51% and a month on month increase of 84.93%. The import volume increased significantly month on month, which was the highest import volume in a single month in history. In the first quarter, China’s total import of lithium carbonate was 2749734 tons, a year-on-year increase of 43.65% and a month on month increase of 26.17% compared with 2021q4. The main reason is that the monthly import volume in January and March was at an all-time high, which significantly increased China’s lithium carbonate import volume in the first quarter. In the first quarter, 99.23% of China’s lithium carbonate imports came from Chile and Argentina, of which Chile was the largest importer, importing 2473397 tons of lithium carbonate from Chile, accounting for 89.95%. In March, China imported 11051271 tons of lithium carbonate, including 1028177 tons from Chile, accounting for 93.04%, an increase of 10.13 PCT month on month; 738.96 tons were imported from Argentina, accounting for 6.69%, with a month on month decrease of 9.75 PCT; Imports from East Asian countries totaled 29.334 tons, accounting for 0.27%, a decrease of 0.37 PCT month on month; Imports from European countries were 1.2 tons, accounting for 0.01%, a decrease of 0.01 PCT month on month.
In the first quarter, the export volume of lithium hydroxide increased by 56.62% year-on-year, and about 97% was shipped to Japan and South Korea
In March, China’s lithium hydroxide export volume was 579677 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 21.55% and a month on month increase of 27.46%, reversing the continuous month on month decline in January and February, mainly due to the decline in output of China’s lithium hydroxide processing plants due to shortage of raw materials, shutdown for maintenance and Spring Festival holidays in January and February. In March, the manufacturer’s maintenance was completed one after another, and the production capacity gradually recovered to the level before the holiday. In the first quarter, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 1755886 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 56.65% and a month on month decrease of 11.47% compared with 2021q4. In the first quarter, lithium hydroxide exported by China was mainly supplied to Asia, mainly East Asian countries, with a total of 1727886 tons, accounting for 98.41%. Among them, the exports of South Korea and Japan were 103489 tons and 672456 tons respectively, accounting for 58.94% and 38.30% of the total exports respectively. In March, China exported 579677 tons of lithium hydroxide, and Asian countries totaled 561477 tons, accounting for 96.86%, a decrease of 1.51 PCT month on month; 182 tons were exported to Europe, accounting for 3.14%, an increase of 1.56 PCT month on month; Japan and South Korea, which accounted for the largest proportion in March, exported 331407 tons and 2268 tons respectively, accounting for 57.17% and 39.13% of the total exports respectively, with changes of + 9.82% and – 11.68% respectively.
The port of Hedland exported 86200 tons of lithium concentrate in 2022q1, and the export volume nearly doubled month on month in March
According to the official data of Hedland port in Australia, in 2022q1, Hedland port shipped 86232 tons of lithium concentrate, with a year-on-year increase of 36.55% and a month on month increase of 1.20% compared with 2021q4. In March, 42547 tons of lithium concentrate were shipped, with a year-on-year increase of 55.85% and a month on month increase of 84.51%. All concentrates were shipped to China. In February, 23059 tons of lithium concentrate were shipped, with a year-on-year increase of 113.51% and a month on month increase of 11.80%. All concentrates were shipped to China. The shipment volume of lithium concentrate in January was 20626 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.66%, a month on month decrease of 67.06% compared with December 2021, and all the concentrate was sent to South Korea. It can be seen from the data that in January, due to the epidemic and tight shipping, Hedland port did not send lithium concentrate to China. With the improvement of the epidemic and the gradual easing of the shortage of transportation capacity, Hedland port’s lithium concentrate export to China began to recover gradually in February. From the Perspective of monthly export volume, Hedland port shipped more than 60000 tons of lithium concentrate in a single month. With the gradual realization of capacity climbing of Pilbara expansion project, The shipping pressure eased and the impact of the epidemic subsided, and there is still room for the export of concentrate in a single month.
Investment advice
In March, China’s lithium carbonate import volume increased by 85% month on month and 71% year-on-year, alleviating some supply pressure in China. At the same time, superimposed on the impact of the epidemic, the downstream demand weakened month on month, resulting in a significant decline in lithium salt prices in the near future. However, considering that the long-term cooperative price of 2022q2 lithium concentrate has increased to US $5000 / ton month on month, the cost of processing lithium salt with spodumene as raw material has risen to 320000 yuan / ton, and the probable rate of Q3 lithium concentrate will continue to rise, we judge that the subsequent decline space of lithium salt price is limited. Tesla said at the quarterly report telephone exchange meeting on April 21 that the epidemic has led to the lack of production time for several weeks in the factory in Shanghai. The output of Q2 may be slightly lower than that of Q1, but q3-q4 will increase significantly, and the annual output is expected to reach 1.5 million (worldwide). We believe that this is not just the situation and plan faced by Tesla, a new energy vehicle enterprise, but the common plan and goal of all enterprises in the whole industry. They will rush to complete the annual sales volume in 2022 in q3-q4. Therefore, the weakening downstream demand of Q2 lithium carbonate will be reversed in the second half of the year, and the price of lithium carbonate will rise with a high probability at that time. I suggest you pay attention to the enterprises integrating upstream and downstream. It is recommended to pay attention to the mining and beneficiation project of Lijiagou spodumene mine under construction. In the future, [ Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) ], which will work with Dagu Dongchuan energy investment to integrate and develop lithium resources in Ganzi and ABA, will benefit from [ Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ], which has been increasing production in the next five years and can achieve large-scale output through OEM, and [ Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ], which is promoting the 2.5 million T / a lithium ore beneficiation project in yuanyangba, with rich reserves of lithium mica resources, [ Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) ] is being processed for the exploration and mining of Xikeng lithium mica mine.
Risk tips
1) the development progress of lithium concentrate is less than expected;
2) the supply and demand of lithium salt have improved significantly, and the price of lithium salt has dropped rapidly
3) rapid expansion of lithium concentrate supply capacity in Australia.
