Core view
Photovoltaic glass is a necessary material for photovoltaic modules, which directly affects the power generation efficiency and service life of modules. Photovoltaic glass is the outermost transparent packaging panel of the module. Compared with traditional glass, it has the advantages of low iron content, high light transmittance, high temperature resistance, oxidation resistance and corrosion resistance, which directly affects the power generation efficiency and service life of the module. The upstream of photovoltaic glass includes quartz sand, soda ash and fuel. Direct materials and energy power are the main cost components, accounting for more than 75% of the total cost; The downstream is the module manufacturer. In 2020, photovoltaic glass accounts for about 28% of the module cost. Photovoltaic glass is divided into ultra white calendered glass and ultra white float glass according to different production processes. Ultra white calendered glass occupies the mainstream.
Photovoltaic glass has the characteristics of heavy assets + low turnover + high roe, and the core competitiveness is cost + technology. From the perspective of industry characteristics, compared with other links of the industrial chain, it has the characteristics of heavy assets, low turnover and high roe. From the perspective of the core competitiveness of the industry, 1) cost control is the core competitiveness of the enterprise, and the scale effect (helping to reduce the energy consumption and labor cost per ton and improve the yield) + the layout of raw materials helps to reduce the cost; 2) With the attribute of technology intensive, leading enterprises have a long time of technology accumulation, have a number of patents, carefully control the technical links, and have obvious advantages in the yield rate.
The new PV installed capacity drives the demand for photovoltaic glass to be better, and the trend of double-sided modules helps to improve the penetration rate. Specifically, 1) the demand for installed capacity directly drives the demand for photovoltaic glass: the process of global carbon neutralization is accelerated, clean energy is the general trend, and the cost of superimposed photovoltaic power generation is reduced. From 2010 to 2020, the global photovoltaic lcoe will drop by 85%, and the economy will be greatly improved. According to Irena's prediction, the global photovoltaic lcoe will be lower than the cost of coal-fired power generation in 2022. Carbon neutralization background + economic improvement, the demand for new photovoltaic installed capacity of two wheel drive is better; 2) With the advantages of high power generation efficiency, long service life and low comprehensive power generation cost, the market share of double-sided components continues to increase. According to CPIA, the market share of single and double-sided components will be basically the same by 2023. Taking 72 M6 modules as an example, the demand for single GW photovoltaic glass of 2.5mm and 2.0mm double glass modules has increased by 41.9% and 13.6% respectively compared with 3.2mm single glass modules. The accelerated penetration of double glass will further open the incremental space of the industry.
The industry concentration has increased, showing a duopoly pattern, and the market share of Chinese enterprises has reached 90%. The concentration rate of glass industry increased significantly from 71% in 2016 to 56-71% in 2021. The market presents a duopoly pattern. The market shares of Xinyi solar energy and Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) 2021 were 29% and 24% respectively, accounting for more than half of the market share in total. The proportion of China's photovoltaic glass output in the global output has increased from 49% in 2010 to more than 90% in 2020. China has become a major producer of photovoltaic glass.
Under the dual influence of policy side and demand side, it is expected that 2022 will usher in large capacity expansion and nominal capacity oversupply. Demand side: we estimate that the total global demand for photovoltaic glass in 2022 / 2023 will be 13.34/15.15 million tons respectively, and the global demand for photovoltaic glass CAGR from 2021 to 2025 will be 12%. Supply side: the glass production expansion cycle is long, generally including 1-1.5 annual production line construction period, 1-month kiln burning period and 3-4-month capacity climbing period. Therefore, the relaxation effect of the policy on supply in 2020 will be mainly reflected in 2022. According to the statistics of production expansion plans of major manufacturers, without considering cold repair, shutdown and capacity resumption, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass can reach 71360 / 94960 tons / day by the end of 2022 / 2023, with the corresponding effective production capacity of 2084 / 2773000 tons, and the nominal capacity supply of photovoltaic glass is surplus.
Investment advice
The new installed capacity of photovoltaic + double glass penetration helps the high demand for photovoltaic glass, and the related targets include: duopoly Xinyi solar energy, Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ; Float glass faucet for continuously overweight photovoltaic glass Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) .
Risk tips
The demand for photovoltaic installation is less than expected; Policy promotion is less than expected; The production capacity of photovoltaic glass climbed less than expected, and the penetration of double glass modules was less than expected.
