Event: on April 21, 2022, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the guiding opinions on the high-quality development of chemical fiber industry (hereinafter referred to as the opinions).
Comments:
The guiding opinions on the high-quality development of chemical fiber industry was issued to accelerate the rapid development of chemical fiber industry: the opinions pointed out that by 2025, the industrial added value of China's chemical fiber enterprises above Designated Size will increase by 5% annually, and the proportion of chemical fiber output in the world will be basically stable. The innovation ability has been continuously enhanced, the investment intensity of R & D funds in the industry has reached 2%, and the R & D and manufacturing capacity of high-performance fibers meets the national strategic needs. The digital transformation has achieved remarkable results. The digital popularization rate of enterprise operation and management has reached 80%, and the numerical control rate of key processes has reached 80%. The green manufacturing system has been continuously improved, the proportion of green fiber has been increased to more than 25%, the annual average output of bio based chemical fiber and degradable fiber materials has increased by more than 20%, the comprehensive utilization level and scale of waste resources have been further developed, and the carbon emission intensity of the industry has been significantly reduced. Eliminate backward production capacity in accordance with laws and regulations, form a group of leading enterprises with strong competitiveness, build a high-end, intelligent and green modern industrial system, and build a chemical fiber power in an all-round way.
During the "14th five year plan" period, China's chemical fiber industry is expected to grow steadily and the added value of conventional fibers is expected to continue to increase: the opinion points out that by 2025, the industrial added value of chemical fiber enterprises above Designated Size will increase by 5% annually, and the proportion of chemical fiber output in the world is basically stable. In 2021, China's chemical fiber output reached 69.62 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 7%, and the growth rate remained stable. Among the traditional chemical fiber products, polyester filament is the product category with the largest proportion. In 2021, the output of polyester filament in China reached 34.92 million tons, an increase of 7% year-on-year. The opinions pointed out that China should strictly restrict energy efficiency and eliminate backward production capacity in accordance with laws and regulations. The market share and production stability of industry leaders will be further guaranteed, which will benefit the leading polyester filament enterprises and continuously increase the market share. According to the statistics of capacity caliber, China's polyester filament Cr6 increased from 36.8% in 2017 to 51.5% in March 2022, and the industry concentration increased significantly. At the same time, the opinions encourages the realization of high-quality, intelligent and green production of conventional fibers, the development of differentiated and functional fiber products such as super simulation and stock solution coloring, so as to improve the performance and quality stability of functional fibers, expand the application field of functional fibers, and promote the industrialization and high-end application of biomedical fibers. Strengthen the quality control of the whole production process, promote the supply of high-quality products, and meet consumption upgrading and personalized needs.
The development of high-performance fiber is speeding up, and the development of wind power drives the demand for carbon fiber: the opinion points out that high-performance fiber enterprises should strive to overcome the difficulties of core technology and realize efficient and low-cost production. Among them, it is clearly emphasized to improve the production and application level of carbon fiber, aramid fiber, ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fiber, polyimide fiber, polyphenylene sulfide fiber, polytetrafluoroethylene fiber and continuous basalt fiber, and improve the quality consistency and batch stability of high-performance fiber. Further expand the application of high-performance fibers in aerospace, wind and photovoltaic power generation, marine engineering, environmental protection, safety protection, geotechnical construction, transportation and other fields, and high-performance fibers are expected to usher in rapid development. Taking carbon fiber as an example, carbon fiber is an inorganic high-performance fiber with carbon content higher than 90%. It has excellent mechanical properties, high temperature resistance, friction resistance, conductivity, heat conduction and corrosion resistance. With the continuous breakthrough in the technology of carbon fiber large and small tow products, it has become an irreplaceable new material in many production and life fields. For example, carbon fiber reinforced resin matrix composites (CFRP) can be used in cutting-edge fields such as spacecraft, and reinforced composites (carbon / carbon composites) made of carbon fiber and its products can be used in products such as missiles, rockets and space shuttles. At present, China mainly applies carbon fiber materials to the downstream diversified application market represented by wind power blades. Based on the calculation data of "wind power leading, multi-point flowering in various fields, carbon fiber industry meeting the development opportunity - the third series of reports on offshore wind power materials" released by us in February 2022, the development momentum of wind power blade field has been strong in recent years. We predict that the demand for carbon fiber in China's wind power field will reach 60600 tons in 2025. At the same time, carbon / carbon composites also benefit from the improvement of the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry. We predict that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China will correspond to the new demand of 7400 tons of carbon / carbon composites in 2025. The opinions further defines the development direction and technical breakthrough of carbon fiber, and the downstream demand will be further improved in the future, which is conducive to the healthy and rapid growth of related industries.
Accelerate the development of bio based chemical fibers and improve the downstream penetration of bio based chemical fiber materials: the opinions pointed out that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the annual average growth rate of China's bio based chemical fiber output is planned to reach more than 20%. The introduction of relevant policies will guide high-quality enterprises and the rapid development of bio based fiber industry chain. China is a large consumer of chemical nylon PA66, and PA66 has long been limited by foreign oligopoly in terms of raw materials, which has imposed certain restrictions on the output and pricing of PA66. Bio based nylon is one of the most important categories of bio based materials. At present, complete bio based PA mainly includes PA11 and PA1010, and some bio based PA mainly includes PA610, pa1012, pa410, pa10t, etc. Pentanediamine and long-chain dicarboxylic acid can be polycondensated to form a variety of polyamides with different properties. They are two key raw materials for the synthesis of bio based polyamides. Among them, the production process of glutamine includes lysine decarboxylation method and biological fermentation method. In the future, with the gradual expansion of the downstream application field of bio based nylon, the demand is expected to increase significantly, and the development prospect of the industry is expected. The Opinions also calls for speeding up the optimization of the supply side at the same time, promoting green fibers such as recycled chemical fibers, bio based chemical fibers and raw liquid colored chemical fibers, and guiding green consumption. This will continue to benefit the market development of bio based materials, and the downstream application penetration of bio based materials will also continue to increase.
Under the background of "double carbon", the green environmental protection policy is overweight, and the development space of degradable plastics is broad: the opinions said that it supports the tackling of key technical equipment of degradable fiber materials such as degradable aliphatic polyester fiber, breaks through the bottleneck of raw material preparation and efficient polymerization technology, encourages scientific research institutes, universities and enterprises to jointly apply for national special projects, and supports enterprises to build innovation platforms such as national key laboratories. As a new biodegradable plastic in recent years, PBS has the best processing performance among degradable plastics, and PBAT has excellent biodegradability. In January 2020, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of ecology and environment jointly issued the opinions on Further Strengthening the treatment of plastic pollution, requiring orderly prohibition and restriction of the production, sales and use of some plastic products, and actively promoting alternative products. In November of the same year, the Ministry of commerce again issued the measures for reporting the use and recycling of disposable plastic products in the commercial field (for Trial Implementation). China's environmental protection policy continued to increase, and the development of degradable plastics is an inevitable trend. In 2021, the annual production capacity of China's PBAT will be 353000 tons and the output will be 204000 tons. In the future, the production capacity of China's PBAT is expected to accelerate. The opinions clearly proposes to strengthen the evaluation of fiber degradability, guide downstream applications, and continue to increase the weight of the "plastic ban order" policy. In the future, China's demand for degradable plastics is expected to increase significantly and have broad development prospects.
Investment suggestion: the opinion clearly points out that China should vigorously develop traditional chemical fiber, high-performance fiber, bio based fiber and degradable fiber. We continue to be optimistic about the future development prospect of the industry. Suggestions for attention in the field of polyester filament: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ; Suggestions for attention in viscose staple fiber field: Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Nanjing Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(600889) ; Suggestions for attention in the field of spandex: Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) , Xinxiang Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000949) , Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) ; Suggestions for attention in the field of carbon fiber: Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) (a + H), Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Jilin Carbon Valley, Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Zhongfu Shenying; Suggestions for attention in the field of bio based materials: Cathay Biotech Inc(688065) , Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688639) , Ningxia Xinri Hengli Steel Wire Rope Co.Ltd(600165) ; Suggestions for attention in the field of Degradable Plastics: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) , Henan Jindan Lactic Acid Technology Co.Ltd(300829) , Kingfa Sci.& Tech.Co.Ltd(600143) , Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) .
Risk tip: Policy disturbance risk, Global trade friction risk, economic downside risk, and downstream demand is lower than expected.
