Key points:
In March, the year-on-year decline in sales expanded, and the capital side continued to be under pressure
From January to March, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 310 million square meters (year-on-year – 13.8%), a decrease of 4.2 percentage points higher than that from January to February; The sales amount of commercial housing was about 3 trillion yuan (year-on-year – 22.7%), an increase of 3.4 percentage points compared with that from January to February. From a single month in March, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 17.7% year-on-year, and the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 23.2% year-on-year, expanding by 8.1 and 9.4 percentage points respectively. From the perspective of capital, the medium and long-term loans of residents increased by 373.5 billion yuan in March, a year-on-year decrease of 250.4 billion yuan; M1 increased by 4.7% year-on-year, unchanged from February. From the source of development funds, from January to March, the funds in place of real estate development enterprises decreased by 19.6% year-on-year, of which the deposit and advance payment decreased by 31% year-on-year, and the personal mortgage loan decreased by 18.8% year-on-year. The decline continued to expand, which was consistent with the downward trend of sales, and the capital of real estate enterprises continued to be under pressure.
In March, the construction of land acquisition continued to weaken, and the development investment turned negative year-on-year
From January to March, the development investment increased by 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 3 percentage points compared with that from January to February; In March, it decreased by 2.4% year-on-year in a single month. From January to March, the newly started area of houses decreased by 17.5% year-on-year, the completed area of houses decreased by 11.5% year-on-year, and the construction area of houses increased by 1% year-on-year. Among them, the year-on-year decline of newly started and completed areas expanded by 5.3 and 1.7 percentage points respectively, and the growth rate of construction area slowed down by 0.8 percentage points. From January to March, the land purchase area decreased by 41.8% year-on-year, and the land transaction price decreased by 16.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 and 9.8 percentage points respectively.
The heat of the land market was still low in March
In March, the land supply and planned construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 56.5% and 72.8% respectively year-on-year; Among them, the supply of residential land and transaction construction area decreased by 64.3% and 86.5% respectively year-on-year. In March, the land transaction premium rate was 3.2%, down 0.15pct month on month, at a historical low; The land auction rate was 31.4%, up 5 percentage points from February. Overall, although the land supply in the first and second tier cities has increased since March, the performance of the land market is still cold.
The real estate index rose 9.5% in March, with a slight correction since April
Year to date, the real estate index rose 6.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index 22pct. In March, the real estate index rose 9.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index 17pct; Since April (as of April 19), the real estate index has fallen by 1.1%, ranking 13 / 31 in the rise and fall of Shenwan industry. Among the secondary industries, the real estate development index fell 0.9% and the real estate service index fell 8.3%. Among the key listed real estate enterprises we monitored, the three companies with the largest growth since April are: Financial Street Holdings Co.Ltd(000402) (+ 9.6%), China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) (+ 7.9%) and China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) (+ 7.4%).
Investment advice
Sales, land acquisition and new construction continued to decline, development investment turned negative year-on-year, and the industry fundamentals have not improved. Under the policy tone of steady growth this year, the real estate policy has made frequent efforts since March. Due to the continued easing of urban policies, the end of the policy has been realized, and the sector valuation is expected to continue to be repaired. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk. Maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Risk tips
Control policy uncertainty risk; Continuous downside risk of market sales.
