The rapid development trend of global telecommunications infrastructure remains unchanged, and China's 5g first mover advantage is expected to bring new opportunities. By the end of 2021, 487 operators in 145 countries / regions are investing in 5g, including testing, licensing, planning, network deployment and startup. Among them, 189 operators in 74 countries / regions have launched one or more 5g services that meet 3GPP standards, with a year-on-year increase of 40%, and the world has entered the 5g investment period. Verizon takes the lead in the world's most valuable Telecom brands. At & T has shifted from a media provider to a more focused telecom infrastructure operator, focusing on the construction of 5g network infrastructure. China Mobile still maintains its position as the fourth most valuable brand in the world.
China is a global leader in 5g infrastructure. At present, China has 14250005g sites, accounting for more than 70% of the global total, leading the world. With the rapid development of China's 5g business, the proportion of 5g traffic continues to increase. During the "14th five year plan" period (20212025), it is expected that more than half of China's population will use 5g network, the number of 5g base stations per 10000 people will reach 26, and the total number of base stations is expected to exceed 3.5 million. China will take the lead in transferring from 5g input period to 5g harvest period and give priority to the scientific and technological dividends brought by Trust Alliance Information Development Inc.Ltd.Shanghai(300469) reform. China's leading global 5g construction and application innovation will further promote the development of China's data economy and open up new market space.
The leading brands of overseas operators have a high valuation, and the valuation of Chinese communication operators is expected to be repaired at the bottom of the enterprise.
The profitability and cash flow assets of Chinese operators have been continuously improved, and dividends have been continuously increased to give back to shareholders. Compared with the historical valuation and foreign level, Chinese communication operators are at a low valuation. With the continuous development of Chinese operators and seizing the new opportunity of 5g development Trust Alliance Information Development Inc.Ltd.Shanghai(300469) great change, the global brand value is expected to continue to improve and bring about the repair of valuation.
At the same time, the operator's peg and dividend yield indicators are excellent, and the investment value is prominent. Among the A-share targets with a market value of 100 billion yuan in China, 30 related targets with good revenue, parent net profit growth rate, dividend rate and P / E ratio are selected. On the whole, China Mobile, the leading operator, has obvious performance advantages.
The policy is well oriented, superimposes new opportunities for industry development, and the performance improvement of undervalued operators is expected to exceed expectations. From the perspective of industry prosperity, the policy of "raising speed and reducing fees" converged in 2022, and the degree of marketization continued to be optimized, which benefited the operators most; From the perspective of cost side, the cost pressure is reduced, the effect of 5g "investment period" in three years is remarkable, the number of users and penetration are increased, the capital expenditure is stabilized, the structure is optimized, and the cost pressure is reduced. At the same time, the capital expenditure is gradually shifted from the CT side to the IT service side, which meets the needs of the development of new infrastructure for the development of digital economy; From the revenue side, the operator's revenue is expected to grow in double digits, and the 5g "harvest period" is coming, including the continuous improvement of APRU, and the business performance of 2B / 2C is expected to exceed expectations again. Based on the background of 5g + cloud network, broadening the business model and marketization direction, and relying on the advantages of network foundation and customer stickiness, providing more value-added services is expected to bring new performance increment. The double-digit growth of operator performance returns to the high growth track, and the superposition of high dividend strategy is expected to drive the valuation repair of operator sector. It is recommended that operator leader China Mobile (a + H).
The risk indicates that the tob end business transformation of the operator is not as expected, and the innovative business model has not been formed; Factors such as intensified competition lead to the future ARPU trend of operators less than expected; 5g large-scale commercial promotion was less than expected.
