In the first quarter, the economy maintained a high level of prosperity, with sufficient growth momentum in the future. As the leader of lithography machine, ASML revenue and data can prospectively reflect the capital expenditure of wafer factory and the prosperity of downstream industry. Benefiting from the strong demand in the storage field, the revenue in 2022q1 was 3.5 billion euros, with a year-on-year / month on month ratio of – 19% / – 29.1%, and the gross profit margin and net profit margin were 49% / 19.7% respectively. In addition, the revenue orders that have been shipped but have not been confirmed, the shipment of € 5.5 billion in a single quarter reached a record high. New orders of 7 billion euros, including 2.5 billion euros of 0.33na and 0.55naeuv lithography system orders and a large number of DUV orders, maintaining the high landscape of 21q4. Strong demand certainty further verifies the strong demand for downstream wafer capacity.
Mature demand grew strongly, and storage became the main force of growth. Divided by process: EUV revenue accounts for about 26%, with a chain comparison of – 20PCT; The proportion of mature processes at all levels has increased. Among them, ARFI contributes the most revenue, accounting for about 47%, with a chain comparison of + 12pct. There is a shortage of mature production capacity and strong demand growth. By application: driven by the gradual advancement of DRAM and nandflash to EUV process and the expansion of production of large international factories, the storage revenue accounted for 50%, with a significant increase of 23pct month on month, which is equal to the logic process.
Chinese mainland equipment procurement is coming to a peak, and the trend of wafer fabrication is obvious. The revenue area is gradually diversified. With the expansion of Chinese mainland wafer into the equipment import period, the revenue rose to 34%, which is the main force of +12pct revenue. The US and Japan increased their investment in wafer fabrication, and the revenue from the US and Japan increased rapidly. The share rose to 7%. The proportion of China’s Taiwan and South Korea decreased to varying degrees.
The performance guidelines are optimistic, and the prosperity of the industry continues to exceed expectations. The semiconductor industry has passed from the competition for wafer capacity to the competition for semiconductor equipment in 2021. Countries’ efforts to build China’s semiconductor industry chain to solve national security will further stimulate the demand for chips, equipment and materials. The company expects the revenue of 22q2 to be about 5.1-5.3 billion euros, and the gross profit margin will remain in the range of 49% – 50%. The annual revenue increased by 20%, and the shipment volume of EUV system will reach 55 sets. Considering that the market demand far exceeds the company’s capacity and the customer capacity improvement plan has been extended to 2025, the company will reassess the production expansion plan with an annual output of 90 0.33naeuv systems and 600 DUV systems. EUV is in short supply, and DUV demand far exceeds market expectations. We judge that the future market will be driven by mature and advanced process technology.
It is suggested to pay attention to: Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , tuojing technology, shengmei Shanghai, Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) .
Risk warning: downstream demand does not meet expectations; The economic recovery did not meet expectations; Global geopolitical risk; Supply chain interruption risk
