Since 2021, the cumulative average sales price of commercial housing in China has continued to decline. The year-on-year growth rate of the cumulative sales area of commercial housing has been narrower than that before 2029 / February, reflecting the year-on-year growth rate of the cumulative sales area of commercial housing, which has been lower than that before 2029 / February, respectively. Since 2021, the cumulative average sales price of commercial housing in China has continued to decline, from 11030 yuan / average in the first February of 2021 to 9552 yuan / average in 2022q1. At present, it is similar to the average price in the first may of 2020. The cumulative average sales price in the first February and first March of 2022 has decreased by 10.7% and 10.4% year-on-year respectively.
Business form composition: the decline of non residential commercial housing prices has dragged down the overall price growth. Commercial housing sales according to the Bureau of statistics include residential buildings, office buildings and commercial business houses. Among them, the proportion of residential sales area with the lowest average price in 2021q1 decreased by 2.8pct to 91.1% year-on-year. The change of business form actually supports the price of commercial housing; However, the decline in the price of non residential commercial housing dragged down the growth of the overall average sales price. The average price of three types of commercial housing in 2022q1 fell by 8.6%/16.6%/8.8% year-on-year respectively. The downward trend of non residential commercial housing prices is more affected by the demand side, and the transaction and construction of commercial land in 100 cities on the supply side has decreased (2013 / 2021: 1.13 billion Ping / 390 million Ping), but the weak demand side still puts pressure on the prices of office buildings: the central bank's entrepreneur questionnaire shows that the business climate index has continued to decline from 59.6% in 2021q2 to 53.3% in 2022q1.
Regional structure: the average price of commercial housing exceeded 10000, and the proportion of cumulative sales area in provinces decreased by 5.2pct year-on-year. Divided by the cumulative average sales price of commercial housing in 2022q1, the proportion of cumulative sales area in 8 provinces with an average price of more than 10000 has decreased rapidly since 2021 (2021q1 / 2022q1: 32.6% / 27.4%), while the proportion of 5 provinces with an average price of less than 6000 yuan / square has increased (2021q1 / 2022q1: 15.5% / 17.8%). Multiple factors have led to changes in the proportion of regional sales area: 1) the layout of real estate enterprises is mostly in provinces and cities with high house prices: most of the provinces and cities with high house prices are leading regions with more layout of real estate enterprises, such as Guangdong, where many real estate enterprises with credit risk exposure in 2021q4 affect the supply of local commercial housing and the confidence of home buyers. Among the provinces with house prices breaking 80000, the decline of commercial housing transaction area in 2021 was the largest and the cumulative growth rate turned negative the earliest. 2) The slow construction of centralized land supply projects affects the supply of commercial housing in provinces and cities with high house prices: a considerable number of projects were obtained by platform companies with weak development ability during the year. According to Kerui data, only 21% of the centralized land supply projects in 2021 had been started as of February 9, 2022. 3) The epidemic spread in core cities affects the offline sales of provinces and cities with high house prices: since 2021, the epidemic spread has occurred in many first and second tier cities with high house prices, while the epidemic in provinces with low house prices is mostly concentrated in border cities with small commercial housing market.
Price change: the average price of 24 provinces decreased year-on-year, and regional and urban differentiation intensified. Under the background of the expected fluctuation of residents' income and the priority of real estate enterprises to ensure cash flow, the decline of house prices does exist. The cumulative average price of commercial housing in 10 provinces of 2022q131 is higher than that in 2020, and the cumulative average price of commercial housing in only 7 provinces increased year-on-year. The differentiation of house prices among regions has intensified. Compared with the end of 2020, Qinghai, Yunnan, Jilin, Guangxi and Gansu with low house prices have decreased by more than 10%. At the same time, the cumulative average price increase of 2022q1 commercial housing in provinces and cities with high average prices such as Shanghai, Zhejiang and Beijing is the largest; In terms of urban dimension, since July 2021, several weak second tier and third and fourth tier cities have taken measures to limit the decline of house prices. At the same time, the house prices in most key cities are still higher than the end of 2020 (in March 2022, the prices of new commercial houses in 56 of 70 large and medium-sized cities are higher than the end of 2020). In the short term, second-hand houses in core cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai have shown signs of bottoming out under the improvement of policies. For example, the proportion of houses sold close to the reference price in Shenzhen has decreased slightly in recent months, and the price of second-hand houses in Shanghai has rebounded since November 2021, but the disturbance of the epidemic may add uncertainty to the market recovery; In the long run, the pressure on house prices in some regions is more due to the trend of industrial development and population flow. The differentiation trend of house prices between regions and cities may continue.
Risk warning: there is uncertainty in the control policy and epidemic prevention and control; The company's sales settlement may fluctuate.
