Core views of beauty care this month: 1) medical beauty: “Shuiguang needle” and others are included in the management of class III medical devices, which will benefit the upstream compliant pharmaceutical device manufacturers for a long time. The State Food and drug administration has adjusted the classification catalogue of medical devices, and the “Shuiguang needle” is supervised according to class III medical devices. The policy is tightened to accelerate the liquidation of the industry, and the upstream enterprises with relevant qualified products are expected to benefit in the long term. At present, most of the mainstream water light needle products circulating in China’s medical beauty market have not obtained the class III medical device registration certificate, while the mainstream products of Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) hi body 2.5, sunflower bubble needle and Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) Runzhi baby needle, Runzhi twin needle and other products have the class III medical device registration certificate. Under the new regulation, there will be a supply vacuum period in the Shuiguang needle Market in the short and medium term, and products with compliance qualification are expected to take the lead in sharing industry dividends in the compliance market, enjoy higher bargaining power, and continue to recommend compliance leading pharmaceutical enterprises with good business logic Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) ( Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) . SZ), Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) ( Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) . SH); 2) Cosmetics: the beauty industry grew steadily in the first quarter, with decentralized online channels and continuous differentiation of brand performance. The epidemic situation in many places repeatedly affected the logistics in the middle and late March of 2022, and the zero growth rate of cosmetics agencies and the growth rate of online channels fell year-on-year. However, in 2022, the Q1 beauty industry as a whole was still growing steadily, and there was significant differentiation among various channels and brands. The growth rate of head domestic beauty brands with strong operation ability and product power was bright. In the medium and short-term dimension, it is suggested to focus on the head enterprises and seek excess α， On the one hand, pay attention to the growth robustness of the main brands of head beauty enterprises in the short term, on the other hand, pay attention to the development of the second growth curve of head beauty enterprises in the medium term; Under the long-term dimension, the cosmetics industry is growing steadily and the industry is growing rapidly β The investment certainty is high. The growth rate of the industry still maintains double-digit growth under the normalization of the epidemic, which is better than the intuitive feeling of the market. The mandatory consumption attribute of the cosmetics industry is gradually highlighted. The implementation of the new regulations on cosmetics promotes the gradual liquidation of non-conforming production capacity and long tail enterprises, and the superposition of the gradual marginal decline of flow dividends at this stage. Both of them jointly drive the voice of the industry to shift to leading beauty enterprises that pay more attention to product power and brand power, and continue to recommend Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) ( Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) . SZ) and Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) ( Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) . SH).
Core view of social service retail this month: the impact of the epidemic is serious, and pay attention to the recovery of the sector. The consumption potential and demand of residents’ cultural and tourism travel are still strong. Although it is suppressed by the impact of the epidemic in the short term, with the dynamic adjustment of epidemic prevention policies and the expectation of gradual relaxation, we are still optimistic about the service-oriented consumption sector with marginal improvement and greater performance flexibility in the medium term. In addition, the industry impacted by the epidemic continues to be cleared, and the leading core value is highlighted. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the three main lines of epidemic recovery: 1) under the top-level framework of consumption return and consumption upgrading, continue to recommend tax-free leader China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ( China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) . SH) with greater certainty of improving management efficiency and profitability this year; 2) The supply of the hotel industry has been cleared in depth and the integration has been accelerated. After the epidemic stabilizes, the demand will usher in a centralized release period, driving the cyclical recovery of the hotel industry. It is suggested to pay attention to Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ( Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) . SH) which goes hand in hand with the medium and high-end market, and Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ( Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) . SH) which has achieved remarkable results in the improvement of integrated management; 3) After the epidemic, the repair of the same restaurant is expected to be strong. It is suggested to pay attention to the downstream catering leaders with strong growth fundamentals. Under the general trend of catering chain rate, it is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the upstream of the catering industry chain.
Market review: from the beginning of 2022 to April 21, the changes of beauty care / social service / trade retail index were + 2.52pct / + 5.03pct / – 4.40pct compared with CSI 300 index respectively. As of April 21, 2022, the median valuation of beauty care / social services / commercial retail industry is 32 / 52 / 28 times respectively, which is in the historical 6.3% / 52.9% / 36.8% since 2015.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic risk; Risk that the policy launch time is less than expected; The risk of intensified industry competition; New product R & D is less than expected risk; The growth rate of store expansion is lower than the expected risk.
