\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 166 Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021, and achieved a revenue of 1.052 billion yuan (+ 34.00%, the year-on-year growth rate in brackets, the same below); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 244 million yuan (+ 43.60%); Deduct 224 million yuan (+ 42.71%) of net profit not attributable to parent company; Net operating cash flow was 176 million yuan (+ 13.28%).
The company achieved a revenue of 878 million yuan (+ 38.5%) and a gross profit margin of 53.6% (+ 4.9 PCT) in 2021. Many high value-added varieties were listed in large quantities, and the business structure of API was improved; Among them, 1) the related customers of micafungin sodium have been listed in Europe, America and Japan. In 2021, the revenue increased by 103.3% year-on-year and the gross profit margin was 76.2%; 2) After the listing of anifenin, the large volume of anifenin preparation led to a year-on-year increase in API revenue of 56.7% and a gross profit margin of 73.0%; 3) Huangdagankui sodium benefited from the high coagulation state approved in India and Europe to treat severe patients with covid-19. The API revenue increased by 243.6% year-on-year and the gross profit margin was 59.0%; 4) Entecavir API benefited from the centralized purchase volume, and caspofungin API benefited from the preparation application of downstream customers, both of which maintained a stable growth. In terms of preparation business, micafungin sodium for injection passed the consistency evaluation in 2021, oseltamivir capsule was approved for production, entecavir was approved for listing in Indonesia, and the preparation revenue was 49.59 million yuan (+ 37.1%) in 2021. The overseas equity sharing income was 54.58 million yuan (- 17.6%), which was mainly due to the intensified competition of corresponding varieties. The technical revenue was 67.78 million yuan (+ 44.2%), benefiting from the milestone payment of multiple technical service orders and the good demand of ADC pharmaceutical technology development customers.
High barrier research and development API enterprises continue to increase their R & D strength: the company invested 173 million yuan (+ 23.04%) in R & D in 2021, and the R & D expense rate reached 16.47%. The company strengthened the construction of technical platforms such as PDC coupling, abiotic macromolecules and inhalation preparations; In 2021, the long-acting peptide targeted coupling drug bgc0228 was approved by ind and entered clinical phase I. the polypeptide hypoglycemic drug bgm0504 and small molecule drug bgc1201 are in preclinical stage; Atropine sulfate eye drops, a class 2 new drug, has been applied for clinical application, and the pharmaceutical research of colchicine topical patch has been completed. In addition, there are still pipelines such as sucrose iron injection, salmeterol ticasone dry powder inhaler and budesonide suspension for inhalation, with excellent R & D strength.
Accelerate the production capacity and provide the basis for high performance growth: the design capacity of Taixing API and preparation phase I project of the company is 3450kg, and the main APIs such as fenjing and entecavir have been capped in January 2021 and entered the equipment verification stage. Shandong Borui API phase I project has a design capacity of 1600kg, mainly producing steroidal, tumor and respiratory drug APIs. By the end of 2021, the installation has been completed and entered the verification stage. In addition, the company’s Suzhou overseas high-end preparation project, Suzhou inhalant and other preparation production base, biomedical R & D center project and Borui Indonesia project have been successfully promoted.
Profit forecast and investment rating: affected by the epidemic and short-term raw material price rise and other factors, we lowered the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from 421 / 613 million yuan to 324 / 429 million yuan in 20222023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 579 million yuan, the year-on-year growth rates in 20222024 will be 33%, 32% and 35% respectively, and the corresponding PE valuations in 20222024 will be 28x, 21x and 16x respectively. Considering the high barrier of the company’s API and the broad development prospect of generic drugs and innovative drugs, the company will be given a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk warning: the dosage of the preparation is less than expected; The R & D progress is less than expected; Price fluctuation of API, etc.
