\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 885 Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) )
in Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company recorded a loss of 498 million (the previous performance forecast loss was RMB 330420 million), and the performance can be recovered in the post epidemic era. The number of flights of the company has increased in 21 years. In Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) 2021, the revenue increased by 16.49% year-on-year to 11.767 billion (29.75% lower than that in 2019), the operating cost increased by 14.66% year-on-year to 11.780 billion (18.20% lower than that in 2019), and the net profit loss attributable to the parent company was 498 million, which increased by 5.03% year-on-year in 2020 (150.04% lower than that in 2019); Compared with 2020, the gross profit margin and net profit margin increased by 1.59/0.57 percentage points to -0.11% / – 4.23% (down 14.13/10.28 percentage points compared with 2019). The main reason for the year-on-year increase in the cost of aviation oil to 3.307 billion yuan was the year-on-year increase in the cost of aviation oil to 3.307 billion yuan; On the other hand, the company’s investment income turned from profit to loss, with a year-on-year decline of 145.96%; In addition, freight revenue fell 17.9% year-on-year. Quarter by quarter, the company’s Q3 and Q4 revenue increased by + 2.67% / – 10.03% year-on-year in 2020, with a continuous decline of 14.23% / 14.38% month on month, mainly due to repeated epidemics in Nanjing and other cities.
Income side: supply and demand have rebounded, and the recovery of China line is better than that of the international line. In 2021, the Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) total supply and demand increased by 15.25% / 15.95% year-on-year (down 11.95% / 21.85% compared with 2019), and the total seating rate increased by 0.46 percentage points to 75.65%. China’s line supply and demand increased by 19.72% / 19.30% year-on-year (compared with 2019 + 5.55% / – 7.17%), and the passenger seat rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points year-on-year to 76.16%; The supply and demand of international and regional lines fell sharply by 57.17% / 59.33% (89.65% / 93.16% compared with 2019), and the passenger seat rate fell by 2.78 percentage points to 52.25% year-on-year; The revenue of total passenger kilometers increased by 2.17% year-on-year, but still decreased by 12.7% compared with 19 years.
Cost side: the fuel consumption cost increased significantly, but the fuel deduction cost per ask decreased year-on-year. Due to the increase in the number of flights, the superimposed oil price increased by 40% year-on-year, and the company’s aviation fuel cost increased by 53.07% year-on-year to 3.337 billion yuan in 2020, accounting for 28.41% of the main business cost; However, thanks to the improvement of aircraft utilization and effective cost control measures, the unit ask fuel deduction cost decreased by 9.5% year-on-year; The total operating cost of the company increased by 14.7% year-on-year. In addition, due to the impact of the new leasing standards, the financial expenses increased by 43.97% year-on-year to 540 million yuan; R & D expenses increased by 62.92% year-on-year to 79 million yuan, mainly due to the increase of R & D activities.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Considering the continuous rise of oil price this year (the average price of oil distribution since the beginning of the year is US $98.91/barrel, an increase of 60.44% compared with the same period last year), superimposed with the repeated epidemic, we reduced the original net profit in 2022 and 23 to RMB -758 million and 1.374 billion respectively, adjusted bps to RMB 4.73 and 5.43 per share, and introduced the net profit of RMB 1.933 billion and bps6.43 per share in 24 years for the first time 41 yuan per share. In the short term, the epidemic situation in China has repeatedly superimposed on the continuous high oil price, and the operation of the company is under pressure in the short and medium term; However, we are optimistic that the performance of private airlines will continue to improve after the epidemic is controlled. On the one hand, due to its streamlined fleet and strong management efficiency, and the company’s relatively flexible allocation of transportation capacity, it will benefit from the recovery of the Chinese market in the medium term. Markets such as Japan, South Korea and Thailand with concentrated transportation capacity of regional lines and international lines may recover ahead of Europe, America and Australia. In the long-term post epidemic era, epidemic prevention will usher in a turnaround with high certainty, The improvement of the supply and demand pattern of the industry helps to further release its performance elasticity. The average value of Pb in the past five years of the company is about 2.90x. Considering the upward fundamentals of 23-24e company, 3.2x2023pb is given, and the corresponding target price is 17.37 yuan (the original target price is 17.94 yuan, down 3%), maintaining “better than the market”.
Risk tips: exchange rate, oil price fluctuation, uncertainty of epidemic situation, etc.
