\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 41 Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) )
Key investment points
Events: 1) the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, it achieved an operating revenue of 1.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 830 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103.3%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 560 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.8%; The net cash flow from operating activities was 130 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.7%. 2) The company released the first quarterly report of 2022, and realized an operating revenue of 270 million yuan in 22q1, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 140 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 120 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.6%; The net cash flow from operating activities was - 110 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 76%.
Production capacity expanded rapidly in 21 years, and the short-term performance of 2q1 was under pressure due to the impact of the epidemic. 1) By quarter, the company's revenue of 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in a single quarter was 240 / 32 / 230 / 500 million yuan (+ 51% / + 8.5% / - 38.3% / + 135.9%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 1 / 1.5 / 3.3 / 250 million yuan (+ 54.9% / + 28.7% / + 105.7% / + 282.3%). Among them, the revenue and profit of 21q4 increased rapidly, mainly because the second workshop of the company was completed and put into operation, increasing the design capacity of 2 million units, and the performance achieved rapid volume due to the expansion of output. The slowdown in the growth rate of 22q1 is mainly due to the frequent occurrence of scattered epidemics across the country, Limited Logistics and limited medical resources for disease control, and the slowdown caused by the superposition of the high performance base of 21q1 company. Looking forward to the whole year, if the impact of the epidemic subsides gradually, the company is expected to increase promotion efforts by virtue of new production capacity and sales channels to achieve the equity incentive goal. The net operating cash flow of the company decreased in 21 years and 22q1, mainly due to the increase of material reserves and the payment of employee compensation. 2) In terms of profitability, the company's gross profit margin in 2021 was 93.5% (- 0.43pp), which remained basically stable. The sales expense ratio is 31.9% (- 3.8pp), which is mainly due to the gradual expansion of the company's sales volume and the embodiment of scale effect. The rate of administrative expenses was 6.7% (- 0.44pp), which remained stable. The R & D expense rate was 6.1% (+ 0.5pp), which was mainly due to the increase of the company's clinical project expense. The financial expense rate was - 1.64% (- 0.5pp), which was mainly due to the increase of deposit interest income. Based on the above factors, after deducting non recurring profits and losses, the company's net interest rate in 2021 is 43.4% (+ 4pp), and its profitability has increased significantly.
The capacity expansion of Chinese exclusive diploid crazy seedlings can be expected. Human diploid cell rabies vaccine has better safety and higher immunogenicity. With the upgrading of demand, there is more room for growth in the future. The company's human diploid rabies vaccine went on sale in 2014 and is still exclusive in China. As the first production enterprise in China, the company has mature production technology and stable product quality. It has the first mover advantage of products and sales. It has covered 1956 National Centers for Disease Control and prevention. The company's raised and invested production capacity is expected to be put into operation from 2023 to 2024, increasing from 5 million units / year to 11 million units / year, doubling the production capacity, and the revenue is expected to increase simultaneously. At the same time, it is expected that the sales expense rate will gradually decrease and the profit quality will be steadily improved.
The R & D pipeline focuses on multivalent vaccines, with outstanding innovation attributes. So far, the company has 10 projects under research. It has a forward-looking vision in vaccine research and development, focuses on solving the unmet needs of China's current vaccine industry, improves the company's R & D capacity through multi technology platforms such as recombinant protein platform and investment in mRNA technology, and arranges multivalent vaccines, such as hexavalent norovirus vaccine, tetravalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine and tetravalent nasal spray influenza vaccine, which are expected to contribute new increments of performance to the company in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 850 million yuan, 1.2 billion yuan and 1.33 billion yuan respectively, and the CAGR of the net profit attributable to the parent company in the next three years will be 17%, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the pace of new production capacity of human diploid cell rabies vaccine is not as expected; The company's inventory is insufficient to meet the seasonal fluctuation risk of sales; Risk of single product structure.
