\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 839 Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) )
Key investment points
Performance overview
Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) first quarter report of 2022: net profit attributable to parent company + 29.7% year on year, revenue + 11.8% year on year, and growth rate + 1.8pc month on month; ROE11. 8%, yoy + 0.1pc, ROA1 04%, yoy + 10bp; The non-performing rate was 0.94%, with a chain comparison of – 1bp, and the provision coverage rate was 482%, with a chain comparison of + 7pc.
Profits maintained high growth
2022q1 Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) net profit attributable to parent company + 29.7% year on year, maintaining a high level; Revenue increased by + 11.8% year-on-year and + 1.8pc month on month, mainly due to the increase in the growth rate of interest income. Looking ahead, strong credit growth and adequate provisions will support earnings growth. Specifically: ① non operating income: 22q1 Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) non operating income is 95.91 million (21q1 is 870000), which is mainly the non recurring profit and loss obtained after the equity of Taicang rural commercial bank is recognized, which makes a great contribution to the profit. ② Net interest income: net interest income in 22q1 was + 5.7% year-on-year, with a growth rate of + 3.2pc month on month, thanks to the amount of loans. Among them, the 2022q1 interest margin decreased month on month, and the 2022q1 interest margin (at the beginning and end of the period) decreased by 9bp to 2.21% month on month compared with 2021q4, which is mainly due to the fact that the downward rate of return on assets (at the beginning and end of the single quarter – 24bp month on month) is faster than the debt cost rate (at the beginning and end of the single quarter – 18bp month on month). It is speculated that it is affected by the public ownership of loan delivery and the downward impact of loan pricing. Looking ahead, it is expected that the interest margin is expected to stabilize, mainly considering the gradual development of retail loans and Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprises from 22q2, which can hedge the downward impact of interest rates, and the drag on interest margin is expected to improve. ③ Non interest net income, non interest net income + 40.5% year-on-year, mainly due to the significant growth of medium income, which is 4.6 times that of the same period last year in 22q1.
Strong credit growth
2022q1 Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) loans increased by + 21.3% year-on-year and + 3.7pc month on month, the highest growth rate since 2020. The strong credit growth of the company is mainly due to: ① based on Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) , the company is located in Suzhou, Wuxi, Nantong and other Jiangsu regions, where the economic momentum is strong and the credit growth is resilient; ② Actively build diversified sinking channels and lay out light inclusive financial service points to bring new growth points for the company’s inclusive small and micro loans. At the same time, the company improved the business layout of Suzhou through equity investment. In February 2022, the company transferred 6% equity of Jiangsu Taicang rural commercial bank, and Jiangsu Taicang County ranked seventh among China’s top 100 counties in 2021.
Provisions continue to thicken
① in terms of defects, the 2022q1 Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) defect rate increased from – 1bp to 0.94% month on month, and the defects remained at an excellent level; The concern rate rose -8bp to 1.53% month on month. ② In terms of provision, the coverage rate of 2022q1 Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) provision increased from + 7pc to 482% month on month, and the provision reached the best level since listing. It is expected that the quality of Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) assets will continue to maintain a stable and positive trend, and sufficient provisions will also lay a foundation for the release of performance.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will increase by 20.5% / 18.0% / 18.2% year-on-year, corresponding to bps7.5% 34 / 8.11 / 9.01 yuan shares. The current price corresponds to 0.90/0.81/0.73 times of Pb valuation. Raise the target price to 8.08 yuan / share, corresponding to pb1.5 yuan in 22 years 10x, the current price corresponds to 0.90x of Pb in 22 years, and the current price space is 22%.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and sharp outbreak of adverse
