\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 702 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) )
Event: on April 21, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 1.884 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 83.25%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 531 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 75.75%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 517 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 72.45%; The performance growth rate was lower than the revenue growth rate, which was mainly due to the increased advertising of China Central Television and the payment of employee bonuses in the first quarter.
The revival of dual brands contributed to the prosperity of the structure at both ends, and the channel expansion potential continued in the first quarter. In terms of products, in 2022q1, the revenue of medium and high-grade wine / low-grade wine was 1.575208 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 90.98% / 98.71%. The dual brand strategy of “shede + Tuopai” achieved remarkable results, and the structure was prosperous at both ends. In terms of subregions, the revenue of e-commerce within / outside the province was RMB 455 million / 12.02 million / 125 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 72.60% / 112.35% / 25.65%. The superposition of overseas sales has achieved omni-channel coverage. In the first quarter, 250 new distributors were added and 93 withdrew, a net increase of 157 compared with the end of 2020, and the number of channels continued to increase.
Reluctant to raise prices and optimize the structure push up the gross profit margin, and the fluctuation of rate interferes with the net profit margin in the short term. The gross profit margin of the company in 2022q1 was 80.83%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.23pcts, mainly due to the price increase of a variety of products and the optimization of product structure in the fourth quarter. In terms of expense rate, the company’s 2022q1 sales expense rate was 18.46%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.92 PCTs, and the management expense rate was 10.84%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.25 PCTs. Advertising and employee bonuses increased the expense rate slightly. Under the comprehensive impact, the company’s 2022q1 net interest rate was 28.39%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.67 PCTs.
Capacity layout, channel construction and brand building have made great efforts, and the annual performance can be expected to increase. The company plans to invest about 7 billion yuan to improve the production and storage capacity of raw wine. After completion, it is expected to increase the annual output / annual storage of raw wine by about 60000 tons / 342500 tons respectively, and continue to increase the strategy of old wine. After Fuxing takes the lead, it will create a stable development environment for the company. The “shede + Tuopai” two wheel drive will create large single products. The old wine strategy will enhance the brand image, enrich channel resources and maintain the potential energy of channel expansion. We believe that the company is expected to maintain high growth under the multiple clear logics of nationalization + Dual brands + the first strategy of old wine. It is estimated that the company will achieve revenue of RMB 7.074/97.66/13.096 billion from 2022 to 2024, with corresponding EPS of RMB 5.82/8.19/11.20 respectively, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the competition inside and outside the province intensifies, the structural upgrading is less than expected, and the strategy of old wine is less than expected
