\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 444 G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) )
G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) insists on "high-quality products", and is a leading integrated game manufacturer of research and transportation in China. The company was founded in 2004. In the end game era, it launched the free MMORPG immortal hero themed blockbuster "asking questions". In 2016, it launched "asking questions mobile game", which successfully realized the transformation and became the core source of the company's revenue. The thunder game platform was established in 2012 and has become the base of roguelike games in China. In 2021, the self-developed product "Yinian Xiaoyao" once again verified the company's R & D strength and the advantages of refined operation. The equity of the founding team accounts for more than 40% in total, and the governance structure is good. Lu Hongyan, the actual controller and chairman of the board, was an engineer. He focused on the game industry. Most of the core management were hardcore players and had a deep understanding of the game.
The re issuance of edition numbers releases a positive signal. Under the supply side reform, the industry pays more attention to long-term operation and boutique R & D. On April 11, the resumption of the distribution of edition numbers indicates the normalization of industrial supply. Under the influence of the suspension of edition numbers and the 830 new deal, the market scale of China's mobile games in 21 years was 225538 billion yuan, yoy + 7.57%, and the growth rate slowed down. The long-term operation trend of game products is becoming more and more obvious, and the average life cycle has reached three and a half years. Among them, products that have been online for more than three years account for more than 50% of the mobile game market. Head old products show strong vitality, and game products gradually move from short product cycle to stable consumer product attributes. Among the top 250 mobile game products in China, the proportion of self-developed new products is increasing, the R & D cost rate of game companies is also gradually increasing, the R & D investment continues to increase, and the trend of high-quality products is further strengthened.
The main games "ask for a hand tour" and "a read carefree" have performed brilliantly, and the company's long-term operation ability is outstanding. "Ask for a hand tour" has a stable performance. It has been successfully operated for more than six years, and can still rank in the top 30 of the game best seller list, contributing major achievements to the company. In 2021, the revenue of "ask for a hand tour" has further increased, and the company's long-term operation ability has been continuously confirmed. It will open its sixth anniversary service on April 22, and its performance is worth looking forward to. "Yinian Xiaoyao" has become a popular model. After going online, it has excellent performance. In the first month, it has ranked the top 15 in the best-selling list of IOS games. By the end of the year, it has registered more than 10 million users. It went to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan in October 21. In the beginning of the 22nd Anniversary Edition, it has been purchased intensively and ranked the top 10 in the best-selling list of IOS games. "Yinian Xiaoyao" has become another long-term operation product of the company after "ask questions" and "ask questions hand tour", which strengthens the base of performance.
Adhere to R & D drive, endogenous + extension, and build a high-quality R & D team. By the end of the 21st century, the company had 530 R & D personnel, accounting for 56.08% of the total number of employees, and its R & D strength continued to increase. In addition, the company has built a number of high-quality game R & D teams through endogenous + extension, and invested in high-quality game R & D providers, such as gold rush interactive, Yongshi network, celadon games, etc., to supplement its own R & D strength and breed popular products.
"Thunder game" agent products are more diversified, and the release of high-quality Games brings greater performance flexibility. The company's independent operation platform "thunder game" has been operating for dozens of games, and has successfully released a variety of games, such as "ask for a hand tour", "don't think about maze", "the strongest snail (Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan version)", "a read carefree", "underground castle 3: Soul poem", "Moore Manor" and so on. It has the distribution ability of end tour, hand tour and host platform, covering MMO, roguelike, placement and other categories and themes, It has distribution advantages in roguelike, placement and other categories.
Investment suggestion: the company has a diversified product matrix, covering MMORPG, placement and cultivation, simulated operation, roguelike, SLG and other game categories. The stock games such as "ask for a hand tour" and "one read carefree" have a stable performance, and there is a rich reserve of game titles that can be issued in 22 years. "Ask" the mobile game has a stable long-term operation, and the long-term flow continues to maintain a good trend; After the launch of Yinian Xiaoyao on February 1, 21, the purchase volume has been maintained, and Xiuxian has placed the category leader; The 22-year-old thunder agency Obi Island: dream country will open the omni-channel payment test on April 28, and its performance is worth looking forward to. The company also reserves a variety of games such as "dawn elite", "flowers fall in Chang'an", "lost territory", "store legend", "family story (M66)" and so on, laying the foundation for 23-24 years of performance. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 1.598/18.28/2.122 billion respectively, with a corresponding valuation of 15.5x/13.5x/11.7x. According to the comparable company valuation method and historical valuation analysis, we give the company a 22-year 20xpe target valuation, with a corresponding target price of RMB 444.86, and give a "buy" rating for the first coverage.
Risk factors: the performance of core games is less than expected; the online progress of new games is less than expected; industry policy risk: the risk of core brain drain.
