\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 139 Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) )
Event:
The company released the quarterly report for the first quarter of 22 years, and achieved a revenue of 1.868 billion yuan in the first quarter of 22 years, with a year-on-year increase of 10.02%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 94 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60.70%; Deduct non net profit of 58 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62.39%.
Our comments are as follows:
The epidemic and other external adverse factors have a certain impact on the overall income growth, but the growth business segment has achieved the growth target at the beginning of the year and achieved rapid growth.
Under the influence of external factors such as the epidemic, the upstream supply chain, midstream production and operation and downstream product transportation have been affected to a certain extent. However, the company's multi regional layout in China and overseas ensures the delivery of orders to the greatest extent. The overall revenue increased by 10% year-on-year, which has not reached the initial goal of adulthood, but the key growth business new energy and intelligent solutions have reached the goal of the beginning of the year and achieved rapid growth.
The cost of raw materials and short-term expenses have a certain year-on-year impact on the net profit, and the month on month improvement is beginning to appear. On the cost side, at present, the cost of some raw materials is still relatively high, and some high priced materials reserved in the early stage enter the cost in 22q1. The company actively promotes the cost transmission of raw materials. The overall gross profit margin of 22q1 is 19.01%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.74 percentage points and a month on month increase of 1.9 percentage points. On the expense side, the three expenses of 22q1 (sales, R & D and management) increased by about 80 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of equity incentive expenses and the increase of personnel investment caused by R & D and overseas base investment. Due to the year-on-year decrease of about 65 million yuan in the movable income of the fair value statement, it also has a certain year-on-year impact on the net profit attributable to the parent company.
Looking forward to the whole year of 22 years, the Growth Logic of the industry remains unchanged, and external adverse factors are expected to be gradually eliminated. 1) The demand for intelligence continues to grow, and key growth businesses such as new energy are expected to maintain a rapid growth trend; 2) Under the new situation of global epidemic prevention and control, the company's multi regional operation advantages outside China are expected to be gradually reflected, and the global market share is expected to be further improved; 3) The inflection point of raw material shortage and price rise is expected to gradually appear. In the past 22 years, the company focused on reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and the overall profitability is expected to improve; 4) The increase of cost input is expected to continue to be diluted with the rapid growth of income. The company's equity incentive objectives are clear. After the short-term epidemic and other external factors are gradually alleviated, the quarterly performance is expected to be gradually improved.
In the medium and long term, the demand for intelligent control in the intelligent society continues to grow rapidly, the company operates in multiple regions, the leading advantages are prominent, and the global market share is expected to be further improved in the future. Focusing on the general direction of intelligent control, the company has laid out the new energy business segment for many years, focusing on benefiting from the rapid penetration of lithium battery applications in various industries. With the combination of organizational optimization, cost reduction and efficiency increase, the company is expected to achieve sustained growth in revenue and profits in the future.
Investment advice and profit forecast
Under the general trend of intellectualization, the company is expected to grow continuously for a long time. The equity incentive is clear about the growth goals of revenue and non net profit deduction in 22-24 years, the medium and long-term goals in 2025 and 2030 are clear, and the measures of organizational optimization, cost reduction and efficiency increase are superimposed, which is expected to maintain the continuous growth of revenue and profit. In the future, with the gradual lifting of external factors and the weakening of the impact of short-term and one-time cost investment, the profit growth of the company is expected to accelerate. Considering the impact of the epidemic and equity incentive fees, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years was adjusted from RMB 700 million, RMB 1.02 billion and RMB 1.37 billion to RMB 660 million, RMB 970 million and RMB 1.28 billion respectively, corresponding to 17 times of P / E in 22 years and 12 times of P / E in 23 years, and the "buy" rating was reiterated.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations, the impact of raw material costs exceeds expectations, and the risk of exchange rate fluctuation
