\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 572 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) )
Investment logic
The company has experienced "Davis double kill" since 18 years: after the listing of the company, it can be found that the company has experienced "Davis double kill" since 18 years. The CAGR of revenue / net profit attributable to parent company in 18-20 years is only 10.7% / 9.5% respectively, and the valuation center has gradually moved down to 10-15 times. Although there are objective reasons, the key is that the company's strategy, products and channel management do not adapt to the changes of the times in time. In 21 years, the company's profit fell sharply due to the impairment of RMB 910 million withdrawn by Evergrande and the rise in the price of raw materials, and the impairment risk was basically released.
Introducing professional managers and accelerating the implementation of targeted changes: the Company re established its strategic direction in 20 years and began the reform of business division system, laying the foundation for the reform. In May 21, the company introduced Yang Xin, the former vice president of Europa group, to take charge of the work of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) business division. Under the guidance of the new strategy of "whole family customization", the reform of the company was further deepened, and the factors restricting the growth of the company were targeted optimized. Product side: the demand fit and iteration speed have been significantly improved. In the past 21 years, the R & D expense rate of the company has reached 2.8%, which is significantly higher than that in previous years. As of the beginning of April 22, the company has launched 10 series of new products in line with the popular trend (only 9 series were launched in the whole year last year). Channel side: the company's management and empowerment go hand in hand. While implementing the "city re cutting" plan in management, it strictly implements the result oriented assessment mechanism. In empowerment, it continues to increase training and active marketing team construction, and introduces the point and general system mode to comprehensively empower dealers to operate in a more market-oriented manner;
Why do we think the company's reform is expected to be rapid and effective: 1) since 21 years, the retail channel has become the main battlefield again, and the company's brand + channel coverage still has a leading advantage; 2) The company now has two key capabilities that need to be precipitated for a long time in the era of "whole customization", namely, supply chain integration and production capacity and information technology capacity, product R & D iteration and channel management enabling capacity. The company has been lacking previously, but these two capabilities have been rapidly improved. Under the current fierce competition, it is expected to force the dealer system to accelerate adaptation.
What is the source of the company's short, medium and long-term growth: in the short term, driven by strategy, the company's main brand kitchen and clothing integration and superimposed accessory sales can increase the terminal customer order to 60000 (less than 30000 at present), and the expansion of new business forms such as packing and carrying bags will also drive the further improvement of the number of customers, and the revenue promotion path of the company's single retail store is clear. In the long run, the multi brand layout still has large channel expansion space to support the continuous growth of revenue, and the synergy of back-end production is expected to appear. With the rapid increase of scale, the improvement of profitability can be expected.
How to see the impact of package on gross profit rate: according to different scenarios, we expect the gross profit rate of package to reach 28.1-32.9%, with limited impact on the company, and the overall gross profit rate in 22 years is expected to reach 33.2-36.5%.
Investment advice
We expect the company's EPS of 22-24 years to be 1.52/1.90/2.28 yuan respectively. Considering the establishment of the company's improvement trend, we give a reasonable valuation of 20 times for 22 years, and the target price is 30.4 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation in China is repeated: the expansion of packaging is not smooth; Poor development of sub brands; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
