\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 786 Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) )
Performance review
On April 21, the company released the annual report of 21 years and the quarterly report of 22 years. The revenue of 21 years was 2.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 390 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24%. 21q4 revenue and net profit attributable to parent decreased by 18% / 40% year-on-year, and 22q1 revenue and net profit attributable to parent decreased by 3% / 25% year-on-year.
Business analysis
In the 21st year, the income decreased year-on-year due to the lack of core by the public. Volkswagen's global revenue accounted for about 70% in 21 years. The sales volume of Volkswagen global and North South Volkswagen 21q4 decreased by 31% / 21% and 5% / 15% respectively in 21 years. Affected by this, the company's annual revenue of 21q4 and 21 fell by 18% / 4% respectively. The gross profit margin of 21 years was 34%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.74pct, which was mainly affected by the rise in the price of raw materials. The net interest rate of 21 years was 15%, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.5pct, mainly due to the increase of pre research projects and new fixed-point projects, the R & D cost increased by 26% year-on-year, and the R & D cost rate increased by 2.6pct.
R & D investment increased, and the net interest rate of 22q1 decreased. The global sales volume of 22q1 Volkswagen and the sales volume of North and South Volkswagen decreased by 22% / 4% respectively, and the gross profit margin of 22q1 was 33%, unchanged month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.2pct; 22q1 net interest rate was 14%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.3pct, mainly due to the year-on-year increase of 31% in R & D expenses, driving the expense rate to increase by 2.9pct.
Customer expansion and new orders are accelerated, and the domain controller is expected to increase in volume. In 21 years, the sales volume of newly designated projects was 15.85 million (full life cycle caliber, the same below), and the sales volume of projects under research was 171.93 million at the end of 21 years. The company added fixed points for PSA, Suzuki and other light control products, and BMW and Ford projects have entered mass production in 21 years. It is expected that the light control products will break through the Toyota system, and the light control products are expected to usher in an increase in revenue. In terms of domain controller products, the company's supporting DCC products of Xiaopeng have been produced in batch and won the fixed point of Byd Company Limited(002594) several vehicle chassis domain controller projects. The unit price of domain control products is high (5001000 yuan), which is expected to become the next big single product in addition to light control, USB, AGS and national VI products.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 450 / 600 / 720 million respectively, with a compound growth rate of 22%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.14/1.49/1.79 respectively and PE of 37 / 28 / 24 times respectively. With the expansion of new customers of the company's light control and the large volume of chassis domain controller, AGS, USB and other products, the company is expected to usher in a turning point of profit growth and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of rising raw material costs, the risk that the mitigation time of chip shortage is lower than expected, the uncertainty of sales volume of designated models for new customers, and the risk of decline in sales volume of key customers.
