\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 661 Suzhou Uigreen Micro&Nano Technologies Co.Ltd(688661) )
Semiconductor testing probe: key consumables for semiconductor testing. With fierce competition in the middle and low-end market, Chinese enterprises have gradually entered the high-end field. Semiconductor chip test mainly includes chip design verification, wafer test (CP test) and finished product test (FT test). The semiconductor chip test probe detects the conduction, current, function, aging and other performance indicators of the chip by connecting the tester. It is a key consumable for chip test. With the increasingly advanced chip process, the refinement and miniaturization of the test probe are also continuously improving. Benefiting from the rapid growth of global chip shipments, the demand for semiconductor test probes is also growing rapidly. According to VLSI data, the market scale of global semiconductor test probe series products reached US $1.126 billion in 2019, accounting for about 10.47% of the market scale of semiconductor packaging and testing equipment. Therefore, we calculate that the global probe market scale will be about US $1.619 billion in 2022 and about 13% of CAGR in three years. Chinese mainland China has only a few of the largest manufacturers of semiconductor probe market in China. Only a few vendors in China have opened factories in China. In 2019, Chinese mainland manufacturers had a market share of Suzhou Uigreen Micro&Nano Technologies Co.Ltd(688661) of 0.24%, while China’s wafer production capacity accounted for 20%-30% in the world, LEENO Suzhou Uigreen Micro&Nano Technologies Co.Ltd(688661) . The localization space of probe is very broad.
MEMS precision parts: the era of Internet of all things promotes the continuous growth of MEMS industry, and the upstream parts benefit fully. MEMS system integrates subsystems such as micro sensor, micro actuator, micro power supply and mechanical structure into a micron or even nano device, so as to achieve the miniaturization, intelligence, low cost, low energy consumption, easy integration and high reliability of electronic products. It has a wide range of applications and has abundant growth momentum under the general trend of interconnection of all things. According to yole data, the global MEMS market will be US $12.1 billion in 2020, which is expected to reach US $12.1 billion by 2026, The market size will reach about US $18.2 billion, with a CAGR of 7%. The research and development of technologies and processes for manufacturing MEMS precision parts such as shielding covers and structural parts is difficult, and the entry threshold of the industry is high. Specifically, in terms of MEMS microphone parts, the global MEMS microphone parts market space will be about US $116 million in 2020. The oligopoly in the downstream MEMS microphone industry is obvious. Goer, Loushi and Ruisheng are the main players. The upstream precision parts enterprises need to grow through continuous cooperation with major customers, The main enterprises in China are Ruisheng technology, Suzhou Uigreen Micro&Nano Technologies Co.Ltd(688661) , Yinhe machinery and Yuyuan electronics, of which Ruisheng technology is self supplied.
Suzhou Uigreen Micro&Nano Technologies Co.Ltd(688661) : Based on MEMS precision parts, the second growth pole of semiconductor probe is growing rapidly. At the initial stage, the company focused on the production of simple acoustic structural parts. At present, its main products are semiconductor test probes and MEMS precision parts. It will continue to grow based on its own technology, customer and product advantages in the field of precision manufacturing. In terms of MEMS parts, the company has excellent MEMS microphone shield products, which are deeply bound to Goertek Inc(002241) , At the same time, the company continues to expand its categories and open up growth space. The new products of fine parts for pressure sensors and optical sensors, which are deeply cooperated with Honeywell and Italy France semiconductor, are gradually in large quantities. The MEMS parts business is expected to grow steadily. In terms of semiconductor probes, the company’s products have been applied in mainstream semiconductor testing equipment such as Teradyne and ADVANTEST. End customers include NVIDIA Qualcomm, Broadcom, ADI and other global IC design leaders have achieved rapid growth in performance and scale. In addition, the company will enter the field of MEMS process wafer test probes (60% of the market, mainly used for CP testing) and substrate test probes through fixed growth, with a significant increase in product categories, further opening the growth ceiling and promising growth in the future. We expect that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 539 / 719 / 901 million yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 154 / 217 / 295 million yuan respectively, the EPS will be 1.93/2.71/3.69 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 27 / 19 / 14 times respectively. For the first time, give a “buy” rating.
Risk tips: (1) the deterioration of the epidemic situation leads to the weakening of terminal demand, which affects the demand less than expected; (2) The capacity expansion progress and production rate of China’s major wafer factories are lower than expected; (3) The verification and introduction of new customers of semiconductor probe are not as expected; (4) The competition of MEMS parts industry intensifies; (5) Risk of supply interruption of upstream key equipment due to deterioration of China US relations
