\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 682 Shanghai Golden Union Commercial Management Co.Ltd(603682) )
The business grew steadily, and the new leasing standards affected the net profit
In 2021, Shanghai Golden Union Commercial Management Co.Ltd(603682) realized operating revenue of 909 million (YoY + 22.9%) and net profit attributable to parent company of 124 million (yoy-20.5%). The gross profit margin and net profit margin attributable to the parent company were 39.3% (YoY + 5.3pct) and 13.7% (yoy-7.5pct) respectively; Among them, the gross profit margin of leasing business is 44.1% (YoY + 10.7pct), and that of property services and other businesses is 25.97% (yoy-9.7pct). Operating cash inflow of 422 million (YoY + 104.3%)
Benefiting from the improvement of the rental rate of the epidemic recovery and the increase of rental area after M & A, the company’s revenue increased steadily. The increase in income without increase in profit is mainly due to the fact that the comparable amount at the end of 2020 is not retroactively adjusted after the implementation of the new leasing standards; If this influence is excluded, the company can realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 178 million (YoY + 13.7%). In addition, due to the recognition of use right assets and lease liabilities at both ends of the balance sheet under the new lease standards, the company’s asset liability ratio increased to 76.66% (YoY + 48.3pct), and the company’s actual interest bearing liabilities were still 0.
Vigorously develop mergers and acquisitions and increase the scale of projects under management
By the end of 2021, the company had a total of 70 projects under management, with an operation and management area of 1.12 million square meters (YoY + 27.3%). Among them, the number of projects in the three modes of leasing operation, entrusted operation and equity participation operation is 44, 23 and 3 respectively; The area available for rent is 72000 m2, 28000 m2 and 120000 M2 respectively.
In addition to independent expansion, the company actively expands projects through acquisition and merger. In 2021, the company obtained the No. 8 Hengshan Road Project and Xiangde road project through external expansion contract; In the whole year, it completed five mergers and acquisitions, successively acquiring 60% equity of Shanghai Tengjin, 100% equity of Shanghai Yizheng and Shanghai Haoyi, 60% equity of Beijing Tongchang technology, 31.304% equity of Beijing urban renewal and 100% equity of Shanghai Shaojin. As the revenue can be contributed after the closing of M & A projects, we expect the company’s revenue to be further thickened in 2022.
Focusing on core cities, the advantages of regional deep cultivation are significant
The company’s existing projects are concentrated in Shanghai base camp and other first and second tier cities in China. In terms of breakdown, there are 60 projects in Shanghai, 7 projects in Beijing, 2 projects in Hangzhou and 1 project in Nanjing. In 2021, the company’s revenue in Shanghai, Beijing and Hangzhou accounted for 82%, 10% and 7% of the total revenue respectively.
We believe that on the basis of the scale advantages accumulated by the company due to its early start, the regional deep cultivation will further enhance the industry competitiveness of the company. On the one hand, the brand effect of the company is enhanced, which is conducive to the expansion of new projects; On the other hand, the company’s bargaining power for property holders, suppliers and customers is improved, which is conducive to reducing operating costs.
Investment suggestion: the company started early and chose a good location. At the same time, it has the advantages of scale and regional deep cultivation. It is a leading industrial park operator in China.
Considering the impact of the epidemic on the rental rate in 2022 and the possibility of rent reduction, we expect that the company will realize operating revenue of 1.1 billion, 1.36 billion and 1.7 billion (1.19 billion and 1.48 billion before 2022 and 2023), with a year-on-year increase of 21.0%, 23.5% and 25.3%, and realize net profits attributable to the parent company of 150 million, 180 million and 230 million (170 million and 220 million before 2022 and 2023), with a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, 25.5% and 26.3%. EBITDA can better reflect its real profit level. We use EV / EBITDA to value the company. The current market value corresponds to 8 times of the valuation in 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the risk of repeated epidemic, the risk of sharp decline in rental rate caused by macroeconomic downturn, the risk of breach of contract by the property owner or lessor, the risk of customer returning the lease or investment promotion less than expected, and the risk of untimely update of information or data used in the Research Report.
