\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 32 Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) )
Key investment points
Event: on April 21, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 22 years. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 2.545 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.97%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 974 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.68%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 883 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.36%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 743 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.53%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 308 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.46%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 286 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.17%.
The performance was good under the pressure of epidemic situation in 21 years, and 22q1 conventional reagent ushered in high growth. The epidemic situation in China was repeated in 2021, with the impact of the high base of overseas covid-19 reagent in the same period of 20 years, and the company maintained a steady growth rate as a whole. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 652 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.31%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 308 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.91%. Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 282 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.39%. The growth rate of revenue in a single quarter slowed down, mainly due to the disturbance of the epidemic and the high base in the same period of 20 years, while the profit side increased due to the reduction of amortization of incentive fees. Since 22q1, the company has accelerated the installation of high-end models, significantly increased the consumption of conventional reagents, and promoted the rapid growth of performance. It is expected that the growth rate in China may reach 50%.
The adjustment of instrument sales strategy leads to a short-term decline in profit margin. In 2021, the sales expense rate was 14.53%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.00pp, and the management expense rate was 6.57%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.83pp, mainly due to the decrease of equity incentive expenses, and the financial expense rate was 1.14%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.05pp. In the 21st year, the company actively adjusted the sales policy in order to increase the market development of instrument products. The price of instruments was reduced, which reduced the gross profit margin of instruments and supporting software, resulting in the decline of the overall profit margin of the company. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 71.15%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.03pp, and the net profit margin was 38.25%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.53pp.
China’s X8 installed capacity achieved a high growth rate of nearly 50%, and the reagent sales volume increased by 26% driven by high unit production equipment. In 2021, the company installed 1673 China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) luminescent units, with a cumulative installed capacity of 9800 units, of which 601 were newly installed in X8 (+ 47.67%), further realizing the coverage of high-end customers in tertiary hospitals (the coverage rate reached 52.41%), and the comprehensive unit yield of equipment increased significantly. In 2021, the sales volume of reagents in China increased by 26.36%. At the same time, 763 sets of X3 for grass-roots hospitals have also achieved a breakthrough in installed capacity. After the launch of X6 new products in the second quarter of 22, the product coverage of middle-level hospitals will be supplemented, and the market penetration in China is expected to accelerate.
Overseas installed capacity exceeded 10000 units, and the growth rate of conventional products reached 60%. In 2021, the company’s overseas reagent business realized a revenue of 468 million yuan (- 18.05%). After excluding covid-19 reagent, the overseas reagent was about 402 million yuan (+ 60.05%), continuing the previous high growth trend. In 21 years, the company installed 2884 units (+ 54.39%) overseas, and the cumulative installed capacity reached 10800 units. After the epidemic, the brand influence of the company in the global market has increased significantly. With the continuous rise of overseas installed capacity, the reagent sales in various regions are expected to continue to grow.
Reach strategic cooperation with Zhongsheng Beikong to further enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of the laboratory department. On February 16, 2022, the company announced that it had reached a cooperative relationship with Zhongsheng Beikong and would start strategic cooperation in the field of biochemical testing. Previously, the company has cooperated with Hitachi and others to launch biochemical immune assembly line and jointly developed brs-sib ultra-high-speed biochemical / immune assembly line system with Lanyi group. At the same time, biolumicx8 modular biochemical immune analysis system is also accelerating its research and development. In the future, it is expected to quickly occupy the terminal market, continue to promote the biochemical immune assembly line strategy and further strengthen the company’s comprehensive competitiveness in the whole laboratory.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: according to the annual report data, we adjusted the profit forecast. Considering the uncertainty of China’s epidemic situation and the consumption of conventional reagents or potential impact, the company’s revenue is expected to be 3.310, 4.287 and 5.454 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 30%, 30% and 27%, 3.704 and 4.784 billion yuan from 22 to 23 years before adjustment, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.362, 1.814 and 2.290 billion yuan from 22 to 24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 40%, 33% 26%, 15.92 and 21.03 in 22-23 years before adjustment, and the corresponding EPS is 1.73, 2.32 and 2.92. Considering that the company is a rare enterprise in the chemiluminescence diagnosis industry to achieve overseas business breakthrough, it is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the next three years and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning events: new product R & D risk, policy change risk, increased market competition risk, etc.
