\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 156 Road Environment Technology Co.Ltd(688156) )
Event: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 382 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.56%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 76 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.23%; The non net profit deducted was 65 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.53%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 57 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.41%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.8422 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54.18%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 3.4571 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.69%.
Comments:
Baijiu distiller's grains fermentation increased significantly, and the growth of river and silt business was steady. In 2021, the production capacity of Baijiu fermented feed was gradually landing, and the cost advantage of the product was outstanding. Meanwhile, the feed industry "ban", the Baijiu "anti restriction and anti" policy to promote, as well as soybean meal, corn and other major feed raw materials prices and other factors, the company's distiller's grains fermented feed products in short supply, production and sales increased substantially. According to the announcement of the company, Gulin Luther, the holding subsidiary of the company, achieved product sales of 57500 tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 105.36%; The product sales revenue reached 114 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114.49%, accounting for 29.76%, an increase of 8.59 percentage points over 2020, becoming an important source of revenue for the company. In addition, with the promotion of the 14th five year plan, ten water policies and other policies, the company's River and lake sludge treatment business has grown steadily. In 2021, the company's revenue from river and lake sludge treatment services was 215 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.96%.
The impact of the epidemic and R & D expenses increased significantly, and the performance decreased in the first quarter. In the first quarter of 2022, the company's performance decreased. The core reasons are as follows: first, the current epidemic situation in China is multi-point, and the company's river lake sludge and engineering mud business are mostly located in the Yangtze River Delta. The situation of regional epidemic prevention and control is severe, and the company's entry into operation projects is blocked, acceptance and settlement are delayed, etc; Two, the company actively explores and explores the application of ammonia caustic soda caustic sludge treatment technology and equipment, and continuously improves the performance of Baijiu fermented feed products. The R & D cost is 4 million 834 thousand and 500 yuan, up 134.63% over the same period last year. Third, the company's income from the sale and disposal of equipment decreased by 102.24% compared with the same period last year, which also had a certain impact on the company's performance growth.
Baijiu distiller's grains are rising in volume, and the company's performance is expected to increase rapidly. According to the plan of capacity building announced by the company, 20222023 years will be added to two new distiller's grains fermented feed factories in Jinsha and Zunyi. The capacity is 15 and 80 thousand tons respectively. The company plans to produce more than 300 thousand tons / year of fermentation feed in Chishui River Basin Baijiu Baijiu in 2023. According to Baijiu Baijiu leveraged resource production capacity construction rhythm, it is estimated that 20222023/202411/22/30 Baijiu production capacity is respectively 10 million tons / year, and the fermentation capacity of distiller's grains will grow rapidly. Baijiu fermented feed products have two advantages: lower cost and higher nutritional value. The company has strong market competitiveness and the current production capacity is in short supply. The new capacity digestion will be ensured in the future, and the production capacity will drive the company's performance to increase. Meanwhile, the production cost of Baijiu fermented feed business has been improved due to the high price of coal, the increase of logistics and labor costs and other factors. Affected by this, the company decided to raise the factory price of all Baijiu fermented feed products from March 1, 2022 to 100 yuan / ton. In addition, influenced by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of staple feed raw materials such as soybean meal and corn have been rising. The demand for products of the company continued to grow and supply is in short supply. The fermentation products of Baijiu fermentation products are expected to further enhance, and the income and performance of the fermented feed products of Baijiu distillers' grains will be thickened.
Cultivate insect feed protein product business and steadily promote the mass production of kitchen waste biological resources. In September 2021, the company established Luther Biology (Wuhan) company to try to treat solid organic wastes such as kitchen and kitchen waste through insect collaborative microbial degradation technology, so as to quickly and efficiently convert them into insect protein feed raw materials with considerable quantity and benefits. In 2022, the company will accelerate the trial production progress of Luther biological (Wuhan) company, and deeply connect with China's large-scale kitchen waste treatment plant to promote the large-scale development of kitchen waste transformed insect protein feed.
Adjust the equity incentive plan, bind the interests of core employees and ensure the sustained and rapid growth of performance. The company plans to adjust the performance assessment objectives at the company level in 2022, 2023 and 2024 in the 2020 restricted stock incentive plan, mainly by increasing the assessment options of net profit indicators. The new net profit assessment index will bind the interests of the company's senior executives and core backbone personnel with the company's performance growth, help to improve their enthusiasm and ensure the company's performance and revenue growth.
Maintain the "buy" rating: the company has been deeply cultivated in the field of high water content waste treatment for many years and has a mature technical system. At the same time, it has benefited from the national pollution control policy, feed "Prohibition" and aquaculture "reduction and restriction" policies. The sludge treatment market is stable and gradually enters the blue ocean of waste residue treatment. As a listed company with waste residue recycling in the current market, it has a strong first mover advantage, In the future, with the release of fermentation feed capacity of Baijiu grains and the price of Baijiu biological feed products, the performance is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. Considering the impact of the epidemic on the company's environmental protection businesses such as river and lake sludge, we adjusted the company's revenue and performance forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 476 million yuan, 729 million yuan and 922 million yuan respectively (533 million yuan and 737 million yuan respectively before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 24.60%, 53.15% and 26.44% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 109 million yuan, 181 million yuan and 229 million yuan respectively (120 million yuan and 181 million yuan respectively before adjustment in 2022 and 2023), with a year-on-year increase of 44.54%, 65.39% and 26.56% respectively; The corresponding EPS are 1.19, 1.97 and 2.49 respectively, and PE are 16.02, 9.69 and 7.66 times respectively.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the market competition is intensified, and the project promotion progress is less than expected.
