\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 11 Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) )
The company focuses on the industrial chain of alloy soft magnetic powder core. Founded in 2009, the company has been focusing on the R & D and production of metal soft magnetic powder, alloy soft magnetic powder core and inductive components. Since 2018, the company's revenue of alloy soft magnetic particle core has maintained at 97%, and its operating revenue has increased steadily year by year, with a gross profit margin of more than 30%. In addition, the company laid out the field of chip inductors in 2018, and has launched a number of chip inductors. At the same time, the company's metal soft magnetic powder also has obvious performance and production capacity advantages. In the future, the company's metal soft magnetic powder, alloy soft magnetic powder core and chip inductor will work at the same time, and the competitive advantage of industrial chain integration is expected to continue to improve.
Metal soft magnetic powder has excellent performance and supports high profitability. The company's metal soft magnetic powder products mainly include iron silicon soft magnetic powder, iron silicon aluminum soft magnetic powder, iron silicon chromium soft magnetic powder and sheet iron silicon aluminum soft magnetic powder. The company uses self-produced powder to press the magnetic core to ensure the stability and consistency of the products. In addition to the self-use of the powder core, the surplus part of the soft magnetic powder of the company is sold to the outside world. Due to the excellent product performance, the gross profit margin of foreign sales is as high as 70%. In addition, based on the research and development of alloy soft magnetic powder technology, the company has successfully expanded amorphous and nanocrystalline soft magnetic powder, which has been recognized by Taiwan series and other inductance enterprises.
Alloy soft magnetic particle core leader benefits from the business cycle of new energy. At present, the company has a capacity of 25000 tons / year of alloy soft magnetic particle core, which is the largest enterprise of alloy soft magnetic particle core in China. At present, the company has established a set of metal magnetic particle core system covering the application of 5KHz ~ 2MHz frequency band, which can meet the performance requirements of many application fields. With product advantages, the company has established good cooperative relations with downstream leading enterprises such as Huawei, Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Byd Company Limited(002594) and so on. We have calculated the market demand of alloy soft magnetic particle core application in the fields of photovoltaic, energy storage, new energy vehicles and charging piles, ups and air conditioning. It is expected that the demand will increase from 84500 tons in 2020 to 283700 tons in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 27.40%; The market scale increased from 3.112 billion yuan in 2020 to 11.491 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 29.85%. The rapid development in the field of new energy will continue to drive the high growth of the demand for alloy soft magnetic particle cores, and the company has a broad profit space.
Chip inductors may become the second growth pole of the company's performance. Using the metal soft magnetic powder with high saturation flux density and low loss, the company has developed an industry-leading chip inductor with excellent characteristics of small volume and high efficiency by using the original high-pressure molding combined with Copper Iron Co firing process. It is mainly used in CPU and GPU power supply module to supply power to the front end of the chip. The company has been verified and recognized by many well-known chip manufacturers, and has realized small batch production and delivery. At present, it is accelerating the layout of automatic production line to prepare for larger batch order delivery. At present, the mainstream chip inductors are mainly made of ferrite. With the advantages of high efficiency, small volume and being able to respond to large current changes, the company plans to gradually replace the ferrite chip inductors in the fields of servers, PCs and mobile phones. Through the calculation of the market space of these three segments, we believe that the market space of chip inductors will be about 12.1 billion yuan in 2022 and 14 billion yuan in 2025. Chip inductor has a large market space. With the promotion of product substitution, it is expected to become the second growth pole of the company's performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating: combined with the company's main business development plan and industry demand growth, we expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 207, 333 and 519 million yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 32x, 20x and 13X respectively. Considering that the demand for alloy soft magnetic particle core is expected to continue to grow at a high speed driven by the new energy field, the profitability of the company's alloy soft magnetic particle core business is higher than the average level of peers, and the chip inductance business began to cover in large quantities for the first time, giving the company a "buy" rating.
Stock price catalyst: the demand growth in downstream areas such as photovoltaic and new energy vehicles exceeded expectations; The penetration rate of the company's chip inductance increased more than expected.
Risk factors: the production of Heyuan production base is lower than expected; The installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The construction of data center is not as expected; The application progress of the chip inductor developed by the company in the field of server, PC and mobile phone is less than expected.
