\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 702 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) )
Event: the company announced the first quarterly report of 2022. In 22q1, the revenue was 1.884 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 83.25%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 531 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 75.75%; The sales collection was 1.818 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 45.42%, and the net operating cash flow was 419 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.49%.
Comments:
Revenue growth slightly exceeded expectations, and profit growth fell above the forecast center. 22q1 company's revenue growth was slightly higher than about 80% in the performance forecast. It actively arranged in the peak season of the Spring Festival and successfully achieved a "good start". The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company fell above the center of 52% - 85% notice, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 28.17%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.2pct and a month on month increase of + 7.9pct (the income of 21q1 was high, the diluted expense rate was increased, and the net interest rate base was high; the bonus payment of 21q4 employees and active control of goods affected the net interest rate). During the reporting period, the expense rate was relatively normal, with an administrative expense rate of 10.46%, a year-on-year increase of + 1.64pct and a month on month increase of -5.75pct (21q4 employees paid more bonuses); The sales expense rate was 18.46%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.93pct and a month on month increase of -1.21pct (the revenue in the first half of 2021 exceeded the expected growth and diluted rate; the revenue was less recognized in the second half of 2021 due to active control of goods). As of the end of the period, the company's contract liabilities were 391 million yuan, down from - 267 million yuan month on month, which did not put great pressure on dealers to collect money. Manufacturers shared the impact of the epidemic disturbance since March.
Liquor products have maintained high growth, and the expansion outside the province has accelerated. 22q1's liquor revenue was + 91.6% year-on-year, higher than the growth rate of revenue, and the gross profit margin was + 3.23pct to 80.83% year-on-year. Among them, the income of medium and high-grade liquor was 1.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 91%; The revenue of low-grade liquor was 208 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 98.7%, and the growth trend of products at all prices was good. The provincial income was 455 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 72.6%; The revenue outside the province was 1.202 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 112.4%, and the market development outside the province continued to accelerate. During the reporting period, the company added 250 dealers and withdrew 93 dealers. The progress of investment attraction was stable, and some dealers that did not match the development of the company were eliminated. By the end of the period, there were 2409 dealers, an increase of 157 compared with the end of 2021. The average income of a single dealer in 22q1 was 690000, a year-on-year increase of + 61%. The scale of old dealers was further expanded.
Increase capital, expand the supply of property insurance, and manufacturers jointly build a new Bureau. In order to better ensure high-quality and sustainable development, the company plans to invest in the project of increasing production and capacity expansion. The total investment is expected to be 7.054 billion yuan and the construction period is five years. After completion, the annual output of raw wine will be increased by about 60000 tons, the annual storage capacity of raw wine will be increased by about 342500 tons and the annual koji production capacity will be increased by about 50000 tons, indicating the confidence of the company in development. After the completion of the project, the company will have a production capacity of 120000 tons of raw wine, which will be doubled on the basis of the existing design capacity. Under the disturbance of the current epidemic, the company pays more attention to channel inventory management, carries out urban battle, and carries out personnel 1 + 1 cooperation through team deployment to help dealers carry out dynamic marketing work and speed up investment promotion layout. We believe that the company is still doing the right thing, constantly enhancing the agency confidence of dealers, and the overall development momentum remains unchanged.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company's EPS to be 5.77, 8.03 and 10.42 yuan / share from 2022 to 2024 respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk factors: repeated epidemics lead to the slowdown of mobile sales; The nationwide expansion was less than expected.
