\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 702 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. 22q1 achieved an operating revenue of 1.884 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 83.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 531 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 75.75%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 517 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 72.45%.
Key investment points
The profit is at the upper limit of the forecast, and the overall quality of the statements is still good. Previously, the company predicted that the revenue of 22q1 increased by about 80% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 460560 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52% – 85%. The actual Q1 revenue was 1.884 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 531 million yuan, which was at the upper limit of the profit forecast. Contract liabilities + other current liabilities amounted to 451 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48 million yuan in 2021q1. Considering that the 2021q1 company began to take off, the delivery progress has been affected by the epidemic since March 22, and the advance collection has maintained a normal level. In terms of cash flow, the company’s sales revenue was 1.818 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 45.42%, which was slower than the revenue. Mainly considering the high base of Q1 last year, it was still the best performance over the years.
Each price segment maintained high growth, and the contribution of a single dealer continued to improve. In terms of products, the revenue of 22q1 liquor industry was 1.783 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 91.85%, of which the revenue of medium and high-grade liquor was 1.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 90.98%, accounting for 88% of the revenue; The revenue of low-grade liquor was 208 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 98.71%, accounting for 12% of the revenue; The growth rate remained bright. In terms of subregions, the growth outside the province remained high, with an income of 1.202 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 112.35%; The performance in the province was still good, with an income of 455 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 72.60%. By the end of Q1, there were 2.579 million new dealers, with a total increase of 2.574% in net sales.
Publicity expenses have increased, and the net interest rate remains high. The gross profit margin of 22q1 sales of the company was 80.83%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.23pct, and the proportion of medium and high-end products was basically the same. We expect that it is due to the improvement of internal product structure and the overall collection proportion of old wine. The sales expense rate / management expense rate / tax rate were 18.46% / 10.84% / 15.1% respectively, with an increase of 3.92/1.25/0.4pct respectively. The sales expense was mainly due to the increase of publicity expense, and the 21q1 base was relatively small. The net profit margin on sales rose from -1.67pct to 28.39% year-on-year, still maintaining high profitability.
Profit forecast and investment rating: this year, shede / Tuopai / Laojiu business division will be split and operated, and the product matrix will be sorted and improved. It will focus more on the operation of large single products, and the channel interest chain is still in a positive cycle. In the whole year, under the logic of gradual recovery of consumption scenarios, although some regional scenarios have an impact in the short term, shede is still expected to maintain rapid growth driven by the dual brand + old wine strategy. We predict that the company’s total revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.96 billion yuan, 9.04 billion yuan and 10.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40%, 30% and 18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was adjusted from RMB 1.89, 2.51 and 3.03 billion to RMB 1.85, 2.55 and 3.06 billion, and the year-on-year growth rate was adjusted from 52%, 33% and 21% to 48%, 35% and 22%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 5.57/7.53/9.2 from 2022 to 2024. The current market value corresponds to PE of 27 / 20 / 16x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the recovery of the epidemic is less than expected, the strategy of old wine is less than expected, and the macro-economy is weak
