\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
22q1 under the influence of the epidemic, the cheese business achieved a brilliant growth of 50%. 22q1 company achieved a revenue of 1.286 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.24%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 73.52 million yuan (taking into account the impact of equity incentive amortization), a year-on-year increase of + 129.55%. The epidemic rebounded seriously in many places in Q1. Under the influence of poor logistics and transportation of raw materials and finished products and significant reduction of terminal passenger flow, the company still maintained steady growth, mainly due to ① the smooth launch of Q4 normal temperature cheese, ② the steady performance of low-temperature cheese after the adjustment of the business division, and ③ the rapid growth of Q4 high gross profit cheese business with 49.59% under the influence of the epidemic and the increase of cheese demand at the family end, The proportion of 22q1 increased by 7.84pct to 81.18% year-on-year.
The upgrading of product structure, more reasonable cost control and continuous improvement of profitability. The gross profit margin of 22q1 company was 38.82%, increased by 0.14pct year-on-year and decreased by 0.35pct month on month, which remained relatively stable. The main reason was that although the proportion of high gross profit cheese business was further increased, the epidemic prevention and control measures were strengthened in many places at the end of March, the poor logistics of the company was exacerbated, and the storage and transportation expenses were increased, which also led to the increase of operating costs. At the same time, the company's management and control of expense investment is more reasonable. With the expansion of sales volume, various expenses are diluted. The sales rate / management rate / R & D rate of Q1 company are -1.18pct / - 0.11pct / - 0.48pct respectively year-on-year. Finally, the net interest rate of Q1 company is 6.31%, up 2.07pct year-on-year, and the profitability is steadily improved.
Normal temperature force + channel expansion, continue to consolidate the leading position, and the stable growth can be expected in 22 years. Since the launch of normal temperature cheese in September, the company has adhered to the strategy of "refining at low temperature and expanding at normal temperature" and continued product iterative upgrading. Q1 has launched online normal temperature cheese sticks (cheese content 55%, pure milk content 20%, 0 sucrose addition) and gold upgraded cheese slices (family table series). In addition, the company plans to launch a number of products suitable for breakfast scenes such as high-end cheese slices this year, and broadcast new cheese slice advertisements in focus, Strengthen family cheese consumption education. In terms of channels, the company continued to expand rapidly. By the end of Q1, the company had 5690 dealers, an increase of 327 compared with the end of 21, covering about Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) retail terminals. We are optimistic that the company will accelerate the expansion of channels in the past 22 years and continue to consolidate its leading position in the industry.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies the risk; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Operation and management risks.
Investment suggestion: the high growth cheese industry is the leader, the profitability is steadily improved, and the "buy" rating is maintained.
The company is the leader in the high growth cheese market and is expected to fully benefit from the dividends of the rapid development of the cheese industry. With the upgrading of product structure and the expansion of sales volume, the cost-effectiveness ratio and overall profitability are expected to continue to move upward. After Mengniu takes over, it is also expected to enable the company in all aspects. We maintain the profit forecast. The revenue of the company is expected to be 6.5/85/10.8 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 44% / 32% / 27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 450 / 780 / 1.13 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 190% / 73% / 45%; The current share price corresponds to PE = 39 / 23 / 16x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
