\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 702 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) ）
The company achieved rapid growth in revenue and profit in the first quarter. On April 21, 2022, the company released its first quarterly report. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 1.884 billion yuan, an increase of 83.3% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 530 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.8%. The gross profit margin of the company increased by 83.3% in the same quarter, and the gross profit margin of some products increased significantly compared with the same period; The sales / management expense ratio was 18.46% / 10.84% respectively, with an increase of 3.92/1.25pct. Affected by the strengthening of the incentive mechanism of the sales and management team, the sales / management expense ratio increased compared with the same period in 21 years, and the net interest rate was 28.39%, with a decrease of 1.67pct; The balance of contract liabilities at the end of the first quarter was 391 million yuan, down 267 million yuan from the end of 2021.
Brand nationwide layout, “shede” and “Tuopai” two wheel drive. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s revenue continued to grow rapidly, mainly because the company benefited from Tuopai shede famous wine gene and old wine strategy to meet the consumer demands of “drinking less and drinking better”. Driven by “shede” and “Tuopai”, the company achieved rapid growth in sales scale in the process of national expansion. The company focused on the strategy of “focusing on Sichuan, Hebei, Shandong and Henan, improving northeast, northwest and breaking through East and South China”, Speed up the national brand layout. At present, the company’s traditional strong markets such as Sichuan, Shandong and northeast have sound increment, stable price and reasonable inventory. In 2021, the company has a net increase of 491 dealers (1036 dealers have been added in 2021, 545 have been withdrawn, some illegal dealers have been dismissed, and the quality of dealer team has been continuously improved). The national layout of dual brands will be gradually promoted in 2022.
Perfect product matrix and strengthen channel thrust. At present, the company has formed a series of old wine collections with a price of 1000 yuan, a price of 8001000 yuan, a price of 600 yuan for wisdom, 500 yuan for crystal, 400 yuan for taste, 200 yuan for the way, and a product matrix of 50-80 yuan for six grains and T68. Among them, taste is the core single product of the company. Since 2020, the company has adjusted the market of taste through measures such as quantity control and price protection, and the price has increased from about 280 yuan to more than 350 yuan, Channel profits recovered significantly, realizing the recovery of dynamic sales in the market and the decline of terminal inventory. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan for medium and high-grade wine, an increase of 91%, and 208 million yuan for low-grade wine, an increase of 98.7%. It is expected that the taste of large single products will continue to grow rapidly in 2022. Tuopai liuliang and T68 conform to the industry trend of rapid development of “high-speed light bottle wine” at the price of less than 100 yuan. Driven by high channel profits, the company’s Tuopai series products are also expected to maintain rapid growth.
It is planned to invest 7.1 billion to expand production and pay close attention to the competitive advantage of old wine. The company issued an announcement on investment, production increase and capacity expansion. It plans to invest 7.05 billion yuan, with an annual output of about 60000 tons of raw wine, an annual storage capacity of about 342500 tons of raw wine and an annual production capacity of about 50000 tons of koji making. The company’s high-quality base liquor reserves exceed 120000 tons. Further investment and production expansion will help the company continuously strengthen the competitive advantage of old liquor in the process of rapid expansion, improve the brewing and storage capacity of the company’s original liquor, enhance the company’s core competitiveness and ensure the high-quality and sustainable development of the company.
Investment suggestion: the company’s performance in the first quarter continued to grow rapidly. We believe that the trend of industrial structural expansion in 2022 remains unchanged. The company adheres to the “old wine strategy”, and the reserves of high-quality old wine exceeding 120000 tons are a strong guarantee. It is expected that the volume increase brought by the expansion of price segment + rapid national layout will continue. Based on the performance forecast of the first quarter, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 to be 1.8/24/3.1 billion yuan respectively, The current share price corresponding to PE is 28 / 21 / 16 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects consumer demand, resulting in lower prices and inventories of leading products than expected; The macro-economy is less than expected, resulting in lower than expected demand for secondary high-end prices; Intensified market competition caused the company’s sales progress to be lower than expected.
