\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 605 Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) )
Core view
The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 and 22q1 was + 21.03% / + 44.16% year-on-year respectively. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 4.633 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.47%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 576 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.03%, and a deduction of non net profit of + 20.89%. Among them, the revenue of 21q4 was + 10.92% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 10.90% year-on-year. Under the adjustment of the company's own business structure, the growth slowed down compared with the first three quarters; The Q1 revenue of 22 years was + 38.53% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 44.16% year-on-year, which was above the median value of the previous performance forecast; Under the pressure of the consumer environment, the company has achieved accelerated growth against the trend by relying on product upgrading and online efforts.
Revenue splitting: the online proportion continues to increase, and Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) / Caitang performs well. Sub channel, 21 years online tiktok +49.54%, accounting for 84.93%, up +14.92pct, of which Tmall accounted for 45%+, trembling accounted for 15%+, Jingdong accounted for 10%+; Offline sales decreased by - 38.03% year-on-year, accounting for 15.07%. Due to the impact of the epidemic and the company's active adjustment, there was a certain contraction, of which daily chemical specialty stores decreased by - 40.52% year-on-year; The company is expected to maintain a high-speed growth of more than 40% on the Q1 line in 22 years, and the double-digit decline offline under the rebound pressure of the epidemic. Sub brands, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) 21 accounted for 82.87%, +3.21pct, including the total number of large single products last year accounted for Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) brand 25%+, of which the ruby essence accounted for 18%+, double anti essence ratio 16%+; The revenue of the second brand Caitang was 245 million yuan, which doubled, accounting for 5.33%; The cross-border agency brands actively adjusted their business, down 34.0%. In addition, the profit side expects the new brand Caitang to lose 10 million + and yuefuti to lose 10 million + in 21 years. This year, it is expected to further reduce the loss along with the scale effect.
Profitable operation: Based on large single product + channel + marketing, multi-dimensional drive the continuous improvement of profitability. The gross profit margin in the 21st year was 66.46%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.90pct, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of online direct sales revenue and the increase in the customer unit price under the strategy of mainly promoting large single products; In Q1 of 22 years, the gross profit margin of the company was 67.57%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.16pct; On the cost side, the 21 year sales rate increased from + 3.09pct to 42.98% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in investment related to new brand incubation and brand remodeling; The management rate was -0.29pct to 5.12% year-on-year; R & D rate: 1.65%; The number of inventory turnover days in 21 years is 106 days, which remains stable; The turnover days of accounts receivable are - 7 days to 16 days year-on-year; The net operating cash flow was 829 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 150.24%, mainly due to the promotion of offline channel de Inventory (dealer inventory) and de credit (reduction of accounts receivable).
Risk tip: the launch of new products is not as expected, and the repeated epidemic situation has hindered the logistics, etc.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. In the current complex and changeable consumption environment, the company still achieved high growth against the trend; Under the short-term rebound of the epidemic, the company's current production is normal and the supply is relatively stable. In the medium and long term, the company is expected to achieve stable and rapid development of continuous performance through the continuous practice of large single product strategy, active development of emerging channels and accelerated layout of multi brand matrix. Based on the company's product upgrading and good development of new brands, we raised the profit forecast and expected the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 730 / 9.0 / 1.09 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27 / 23 / 21%; Diluted EPS = 3.64/4.48/5.44 yuan, the current share price corresponds to PE = 50 / 41 / 33x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
