\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 838 Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) )
Rooted in the southwest, the bank government cooperation has a deep foundation. Founded in 1996, the company has gradually formed a cross regional business layout based on Chengdu, rooted in Sichuan and radiating Shaanxi and Chongqing. For a long time, the bank government cooperation has been in-depth. It will return to state-owned assets holding in 2021 to consolidate the foundation of cooperation. Most of the previous managers have big bank or government background, the concept of “transformation” runs through the development, and the three strategies are further promoted.
Outstanding location advantages and welcome a period of major development opportunities. Located in the “land of abundance”, the western development has opened the “prelude to growth”; Large economic volume and leverage space; The population has both quantitative and structural advantages, residents have considerable accumulation of wealth and great consumption potential; With the upgrading of regional strategy and the collection of a number of policies, it is becoming China’s “fourth pole”.
For the public, infrastructure construction is the spear, supporting industry and pursuing the future. Resonating with the development path of “infrastructure first and industry following”, the company’s banking and government business has developed rapidly in recent years under the historical basis, opportunities (allocation to rent) and professional support. It is expected to continue to make efforts under the regional strategic upgrading and the release of the list of three major projects, forming the logic of medium and short-term high expansion of the company; Actively embrace industrial upgrading, the proportion of manufacturing loans has rebounded, the achievements of science and innovation finance have been shown, and the logic of long-term expansion is also clear. We estimate that the compound growth rate of the company’s total assets in 21-25 years is expected to be 15% – 16%.
Strategic leadership, retail ready to go. Guided by the transformation goal of “big retail”, personal savings have increased significantly, laying the foundation for high expansion and wealth management; Housing mortgage accounts for nearly 90% of individual loans, with uneven structure but broad space; Wealth management has a channel foundation, and “leap” also depends on financial management.
From high non-performing to extremely clean statements. The historical burden of 20142015 has been removed. Since 21q1, the company’s non-performing rate has been better than that of its peers. The low-risk expansion strategy of “public infrastructure + personal mortgage” superimposes the “de standardization” of financial investment to help improve the proportion of high-quality assets and make new investment safer. The net generation rate of non-performing assets decreased to -0.02%, significantly ahead of the industry, and further clarified the good trend of asset quality.
High performance and prosperity support the continuation of high roe. Since 2021, the growth rate of the company’s revenue and profit has both increased. Among them, the high expansion is the support, driving the growth rate of net interest income against the trend. Benefiting from the regional development dividend, the high expansion is expected to continue; The bank administration business helps the net interest margin to be highly stable, the asset side yield has the potential to improve, and the net interest margin is expected to be stable and good; Driven by the “big retail” strategy, the medium income growth can be expected. The company’s roe is stable at a high level of about 16%, and the high performance and prosperity support the continuation of high roe. We calculate that even if 8 billion convertible bonds are converted into shares in 2022, the roe can still rise to about 18%.
Investment suggestion: Chengdu Chongqing welcomes the period of major development opportunities, based on the deep foundation of bank government cooperation, takes infrastructure as the spear for corporate business, makes use of industry to seek long-term layout, and forms a high expansion logic with both length and length; Under the guidance of large retail strategy, personal loan and wealth management are ready to go; Unloading the historical burden, the asset quality continued to improve, and the net generation rate of non-performing assets fell to the “0” level; The performance is expected to maintain a high boom and help the continuation of high roe. It is estimated that the EPS of 21-23 years will be 2.15 yuan, 2.35 yuan and 2.91 yuan respectively. The closing price on April 20, 2022 corresponds to 1.0 times of the 22-year Pb, which is basically the same as the average and median of comparable companies, significantly lower than Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the macroeconomic situation is down; Regional credit risk appears; The transformation progress is less than expected; The conversion of convertible bonds into shares was less than expected.
