\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 68 Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) )
Event overview: on April 21, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of 162172 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 162.01% - 178.18%, a month on month increase of 128.17% - 142.25%, and a net profit of 150160 million yuan after deducting non recurring profits and losses, with a year-on-year increase of 164.66% - 182.30% and a month on month increase of 53.06% - 63.27%. During the reporting period, the impact of non recurring profits and losses on the net profit attributable to the parent company in the current period is expected to be about 12 million yuan. Previously, the company estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from January to February was 95 million yuan, corresponding to 67-77 million yuan in March.
The rhythm of diaphragm capacity release is accelerated. In 2021, the annual sales volume of the company's diaphragm was 1.22 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 61.14%. It is estimated that the company has no new production capacity in the first quarter of 22 years, and the diaphragm shipment volume is the same as that in Q4 of 21 years. With the orderly release of the production capacity of the three factories in Shenzhen, Changzhou and Hefei, we expect the company to have a production capacity of 1.96 billion square meters and a shipment volume of more than 1.7 billion square meters by the end of 22 years. In the long-term planning, the total production capacity of the company's base film will exceed 6 billion square meters and the coating capacity will exceed 4 billion square meters in 25 years.
The product structure has been upgraded, and the single average net profit has continued to break through. The average net profit of the company in the whole year of 21 years and Q4 was 0.26 yuan / m2 and 0.31 yuan / m2 respectively. According to the calculation, the average net profit of the company in the first quarter of 22 years was 0.46 yuan / m2 -0.49 yuan / m2. The average profit increased by 78.8% - 86.5% and 48.4% - 58.1% month on month compared with that in 21 years. The profitability of the company's products continued to break through, mainly due to the significant increase in the proportion of coated diaphragms. We expect that in the first quarter of 22, the proportion of wet diaphragms accounted for about 70%, the proportion of coating accounted for more than 50%, and the proportion of coating increased by about 13pct compared with the same period in 21 years.
Customer structure optimization. Price code layout of overseas business. The company adopted the global development strategy layout, signed a contract with northvol in March 21, set up a European factory in Sweden and accelerated the development of the European market; In August 21, the company signed an agreement with LG to lock in the needs of international customers. The growth of overseas orders is conducive to improving the profitability of the company. The company binds Chinese first-line power battery manufacturers, including China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) and so on, to ensure the high growth rate of orders.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 703, 1407 and 2057 million yuan, with a simultaneous increase of 148%, 100% and 46%, corresponding to the valuation of 30, 15 and 10 times PE. Considering the continuous improvement of the company's profitability and the imminent large-scale release of production capacity, we maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected; The development of overseas customers is less than expected; The production progress of new capacity is less than expected.
