\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 379 Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(603379) )
In 2021q4, the single quarter performance increased by 3271.7% year-on-year, the industry margin continued to improve, and the "buy" rating was maintained
The company achieved a revenue of 4.048 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 48.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 536 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.7%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 484 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 218.3%. In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 293 million yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 3271.7% and a month on month increase of 188.9%. The company's performance meets our expectations. We maintain the company's profit forecast unchanged and add the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 835 million yuan, 1102 million yuan and 1774 million yuan, and the EPS will be 1.37, 1.81 and 2.91 yuan / share respectively. The current share price corresponds to 13.6, 10.3 and 6.4 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
R142b in short supply may continue, and the opportunity of HFCS refrigerant trend reversal may be approaching
In 2021, the company sold 128000 tons of fluorine refrigerant, 16000 tons of fluorine foaming agent and 77000 tons of hydrogen fluoride; Revenue of RMB 3.02 billion, RMB 250 million and RMB 590 million respectively; The annual average price was 24000 yuan / ton, 16000 yuan / ton and 80000 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 56.7%, - 9.5% and + 32.0% respectively. The average price of Q4 in a single quarter was + 179.5%, + 21.4% and + 71.9% respectively, with a month-on-month increase of + 64.6%, + 27.1% and + 34.6% respectively. The company has a deliverable R142b production capacity of 4200 tons. Benefiting from the rapid growth of downstream PVDF demand, R142b, as the raw material of PVDF, is in short supply, the price has risen sharply, and the gross profit margin of the product has increased significantly. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the annual average price (including tax) of R142b in 2021 was 83000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 425.0%; The average price of 2022q1 has reached 193000 yuan / ton, an increase of 750.4% year-on-year and 8.2% month on month. The supply and demand pattern of R142b used as PVDF raw material is difficult to reverse in the short term, and it is expected to continue to contribute higher profits to the company. The dark hour of the company's main refrigerant industry has passed. With the clear expectation of quota landing, the trend inflection point of the refrigerant industry may be approaching. The production capacity of R32, R125, R134a, R22 and R142b of the company is 4, 5.2, 6.5, 1440 and 4200 tons respectively. It is China's leading refrigerant enterprise. The rise of the high certainty cycle of the refrigerant industry in the future will bring greater performance flexibility to the company.
Extend the fluorochemical industry chain and advance to the field of fluoropolymers
The company plans to change the original 10000 t / a pentafluoropropane project into 5000 t / a FEP and 5000 t PVDF projects, with an estimated total investment of 1.08 billion yuan and a construction period of 2 years. This means that the company will officially enter the field of fluoropolymers and further extend the fluorochemical industry chain. In addition, the company's lifsi, LiPF6, high-purity phosphorus pentafluoride, AHF technical transformation and expansion, r116 production and other projects are progressing smoothly.
Risk tips: safety production risk, policy change risk, sluggish terminal consumption, etc.
