\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 69 Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) )
The company focuses on nano lithium iron phosphate business and is the industry leader. Founded in 2007, the founder has many years of research experience in the field of nano materials. Downstream deep binding Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , while actively expanding production capacity. As of February 22, the company’s cathode material LFP capacity was 155000 tons, and the capacity under construction and planned to be built was 620000 tons. In the 21st and 22nd years, Q1’s new capacity release and inventory income led to the improvement of performance. In the 22nd year, Q1’s revenue was 3.374 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 562%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1403%.
Demand for lithium iron phosphate increased. The battery loading volume in the power market continued to grow, the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the development of lithium battery energy storage accelerated. Compared with ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate has the advantages of high safety, relatively low production cost and excellent cycle performance. Through calculation, we expect that the shipment volume of LFP cathode materials in China in 25 years will be 2.83 million tons, with a compound growth rate of 48% compared with that in 21 years.
The original liquid phase process has both product power and cost advantages. 1) Product power: the particle size of lithium iron phosphate produced by liquid phase method is smaller than that produced by solid phase method, and the product consistency is good, and the cycle life is longer; 2) Lower energy consumption: first, the precursor prepared by liquid-phase method using self heating does not need external heating; second, there is no need for ball milling and other processes due to particle nanocrystallization; third, the sintering temperature of liquid-phase method is 650680 ℃, while that of solid-phase method is higher, 700730 ℃; 3) Low cost of raw materials: the liquid-phase method uses ferric nitrate as the iron source, monoammonium phosphate as the phosphorus source, while the solid-phase method uses ferric phosphate. At present, the price of ferric phosphate remains high. In addition, the lithium carbonate used by the company is industrial grade, while the lithium carbonate used by other companies is battery grade, and the average annual price difference in recent one year is 10400 yuan / ton.
The expanded new phosphate cathode material has high energy density compared with lithium iron phosphate. The energy density of the new phosphate cathode material is more than 10% higher than that of lithium iron phosphate, and retains the advantages of high safety and low cost. The company promoted mass production layout and announced 100000 tons and 330000 tons of new phosphate cathode material projects on September 2021 and January 2022, respectively.
The layout of lithium supplement project is expected to become a new growth point. The company’s lithium supplement additive is a positive lithium supplement material, which can be applied to the positive electrodes of lithium-ion batteries in various systems, and can effectively improve the energy density and cycle life of the battery. After combined with the new phosphate positive material, the energy density of the existing lithium iron phosphate battery is increased by about 20%. The company’s lithium replenishment agent adopts liquid-phase process, and announced to expand the production of 25000 tons and 20000 tons of lithium replenishment agent in September 2021 and January 2022 respectively.
For the first time, give a “buy” rating. We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 156 / 235 / 33.9 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 20.99/25.79/3.555 billion yuan respectively, the EPS will be 23.53/28.90/39.83 yuan respectively, and the current price corresponding to PE will be 19 / 16 / 11 times. For the first time, give a “buy” rating
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price of raw materials continues to rise; Industry competition intensifies; The project is not put into operation as expected; Risk of industry scale measurement deviation; Risk of using information and data not updated in time.
