\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 299 Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) )
Integrated layout of broiler industry chain, simultaneously consolidate the advantages of seed source, production capacity and brand, and maintain the “buy” rating
Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) released the annual report of 2021: the company achieved an operating revenue of 14.478 billion yuan (+ 5.34%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 448 million yuan (- 78.04%) in 2021. The main reason is that the price of feed raw materials raises the breeding cost, the price of live pigs is at a historically low level, which suppresses the driving force of rising poultry prices, superimposes the periodic occurrence of covid-19 epidemic, and affects the recovery intensity of consumer demand. Based on this, we reduce the company’s profit expectation from 2022 to 2023; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 595 / 1502 / 1749 million (the predicted value before 20222023 is RMB 1463 / 2646 million), the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.48/1.21/1.41 respectively, and the current share price will be 40.5/16.1/13.8 times PE. The company orderly promoted the layout of broiler integrated industrial chain and built a solid foundation for seed source and production capacity; In terms of food deep processing board business, vigorously promote the C-end business, enhance brand influence, provide power for thickening gross profit and maintain the “buy” rating.
The company’s performance was temporarily under pressure due to the high feed price and the low terminal price
In 2021, the company sold 1055400 tons of chicken, with a year-on-year increase of 7.86%. Affected by the large rise of corn soybean meal and other raw materials in 2021 and the decline of chicken terminal price, the annual profit level is under pressure. The company’s self-developed white feather broiler variety “Shengze 901” was officially approved in December 2021. Relying on the advantages of provenance, the company’s breeding level has been continuously improved. The broiler processing plant in Guangze base of the company has been successfully put into operation, which can process 90 million broilers and produce 195000 tons of products every year. We expect that with the rise of pig price driving the recovery of poultry price, the improvement of breeding efficiency and orderly expansion of production capacity of the company will be superimposed, and the performance fulfillment level will be improved simultaneously.
The company’s C-end channel expansion continues, and the brand influence is increasing day by day
In 2021, the company sold 224600 tons of meat products, with a year-on-year increase of 17.13%. The company’s deep-processing food sales channels are mainly catering and household consumption, and the b-end and C-end have been fully covered. With the active layout of the company’s C-end channels, the sales of online and new retail platforms have achieved a compound annual growth rate of more than 250% and 300% respectively. The sales of “crispy fried chicken” and “Dudu wings” exceeded 10 million in a single month. With the orderly development of the company’s C-end product research and development, the brand advantage built by the C-end business will provide a stronger driving force for the company’s revenue growth.
Risk tips: epidemic risk, pig production capacity rebounded too fast, and the production capacity of white feather broiler industry expanded beyond expectations.
