\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 689 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) )
Event:
Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) released the first quarterly report of 2022: in the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 3.745 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.34%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 386 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 56.84%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non profits was 377 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 57.08%.
Key investment points:
Q1 profitability improved month on month. In Q1 2022, the company’s gross profit margin was 20.77%, with a year-on-year ratio of -1.16pct and a month on month ratio of + 3.22pct; The net interest rate was 10.67%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.43pct and a month on month increase of + 3.62pct. Compared with Q4 in 2021, the company’s profitability rebounded significantly in the quarter. From the cost side, the period cost rate is 7.94%, year-on-year + 1.17pct; Among them, the sales expense ratio was 1.36%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.21pct; The management expense ratio was 2.46, with a year-on-year increase of -0.45pct; The R & D cost was 4.57%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.51pct, and the overall cost control effect was remarkable.
Tesla Shanghai plant capacity recovery. Tesla, the company’s key customer, delivered 936000 vehicles worldwide in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 87%. From January to March 2022, Tesla sold 182174 vehicles domestically, a year-on-year increase of 162.86%. Affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, Tesla’s Shanghai factory stopped production on March 16 and 17, and then stopped production again on March 28. On April 16, Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission issued the guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of industrial enterprises returning to work and production in Shanghai (the first edition). On April 19, 8000 employees of Tesla Shanghai factory came to work and officially resumed production, and the production capacity will gradually climb in 3-4 days to reach the full production state of a single shift. On April 21, at the Q1 earnings conference, musk said that the production capacity of the factory in Shanghai had recovered, and then there would be a record weekly output. He predicted that the output of Q2 would be the same as that of Q1 and achieve higher output in Q3 and Q4. We expect the global sales volume of Tesla in 2022 to be 1.6 million, including 750000 domestic Tesla.
Business synergy is becoming more and more obvious, and continue to explore tier0 5. Cooperation mode. The company actively distributes new energy vehicle related businesses, is an important supplier in the field of automobile lightweight chassis, and has achieved a breakthrough in thermal management system. In 2021, the company sold 513900 sets of thermal management systems, including integrated heat pump assembly, multi-way valve, electronic water pump, electronic expansion valve, etc. In addition, relying on the accumulated experience in IBS, rubber and vacuum pump, the company quickly developed the air suspension system project, with a single vehicle supporting 5 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) 00 yuan, which has a large market space. So far, the company has completed the layout of eight business segments, namely NVH damping system, interior and exterior decoration system, lightweight body, intelligent cabin components, thermal management system, chassis system, air suspension system and intelligent driving system. At present, the maximum supporting amount of single vehicle is about 30000 yuan, promoting the key customer strategy and continuously exploring tier0 Level 5 cooperation mode. We believe that based on the advantages of NVH damping system, the company cut into the automobile suspension track, raised funds to invest in the electronic vacuum pump EVP and intelligent braking system IBS to power the automobile electronic business, laid out the automobile thermal management based on the research and development advantages of IBS, and further expanded to the skateboard chassis products through the perfect business layout. So far, the business synergy advantage of the company has been gradually highlighted, and it is expected to continue to be laid out in the existing business in the future, Continuously improve the supporting value of single vehicle.
The customer structure is excellent, and the income breaks through the ceiling of the traditional system. The company’s customers mainly include Tesla, Geely, GM, etc., and have grown rapidly in the supply system of Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng. At the same time, it has also entered new forces such as rivian and lucid, of which the value of the supporting rivian bicycle is as high as 11000 yuan. We are optimistic that Tesla will become the largest customer. At the same time, new forces will enter the domestic suppliers of Tesla industrial chain of the top five customers. This customer structure also drives suppliers to break through the income ceiling of the traditional supporting system.
Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , the new power of parts. The company has a comprehensive layout of new businesses such as integrated die casting, wire controlled braking, air suspension, electrically adjustable steering wheel, electric door, sliding chassis and so on. Recently, the company mass produced 7200T integrated die-casting rear cabin in Hangzhou Bay manufacturing base, supporting Gaohe automobile, and became the first parts supplier to mass produce super large integrated aluminum alloy structural parts; The air suspension of the company is planned to be officially put into operation in June 2022. After the new plant is put into operation, it can achieve an annual output of 2million air suspensions, meeting the supporting requirements of 500000 vehicles per year; The company’s latest generation of intelligent braking system ibs-pro is expected to be mass produced this year to meet the supporting needs of 500000 vehicles, and adopt a more integrated one box brake by wire solution; The company has also laid out electrically adjustable steering wheel and electric door. At the same time, the company can also provide system level integrated skateboard chassis solutions from thermal management, intelligent braking, steering by wire, electric power steering, air suspension and so on. We believe that Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) is a new force of parts and is expected to become an international supplier of auto parts in the era of intelligent electric.
Profit forecast and investment rating we are optimistic about the expansion of the company’s projects in integrated die casting, air suspension, intelligent braking system IBS and thermal management system. It is estimated that the company’s main business income from 2022 to 2024 will be 16.7 billion yuan, 22.4 billion yuan and 28.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 46%, 34% and 28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.7 billion, 2.3 billion and 3.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 67%, 38% and 35%; EPS is 1.54, 2.13 and 2.87 yuan, corresponding to 32, 23 and 17 times of PE. The valuation is reasonable and maintains the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk Tips 1) the price of raw materials continues to rise; 2) International shipping prices continued to rise; 3) The sales growth of new energy vehicles was lower than expected; 4) The company’s new customer expansion is less than expected; 5) The sales volume of key customers of the company is lower than expected; 6) The company’s new business capacity is lower than expected.
