\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 979 China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the revenue was + 27% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 24% year-on-year, which was slightly lower than our expectation. In 2022q1, due to the slight impact of the epidemic, the revenue was + 1% year-on-year and the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 11% year-on-year. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.203 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.13%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 218 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.05%, and the performance was slightly lower than our expectation. In 2022q1, the operating revenue reached 302 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.05% and a month on month increase of 10.53%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 55 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.64%. 2022q1 performance was slightly lower than expected: due to the control of Shenzhen epidemic for a certain time in March, the company’s operation, production, logistics and other activities were slightly blocked, but we expect the order side to basically achieve a small double-digit growth.
The company’s profit margin was basically flat year-on-year. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 41.64%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.98 PCT, and in 2022q1, the gross profit margin was 40.51%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.43 PCT; In 2021, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 18.15%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.45pct; In 2022q1, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 18.24%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.39pct. 1) In terms of gross profit margin, although the prices of bulk commodities and chips increased, the gross profit margin of various products of the company decreased slightly year-on-year in 2021; In 2022, the price of raw materials is still at a high level. In April, the company transmitted cost pressure through product price increase of 5-8%, and the gross profit margin is expected to repair upward; 2) In terms of the net interest rate attributable to the parent company, the company’s R & D and sales expenses increased in 2021, resulting in a slight decline in the net interest rate attributable to the parent company.
At the beginning of the overall high-speed increase of servo and the power of control layer products, the solution ability is gradually improved. On the product side, 1) the revenue of the stepping system in 2021 was 588 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18.84%. Through the closed-loop step-by-step new product planning function, the dominant position was stabilized, and we expect a steady growth in the follow-up. 2) The revenue of servo system in 2021 was 317 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 48.26%. Among them, the low-voltage servo mainly benefited from the recovery of China’s spray printing photo and textile industry, superimposed with the breakthrough of AGV market, and realized a revenue of RMB 70 million, a year-on-year increase of + 47.5%; In terms of AC servo, the company achieved a revenue of 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 52.3%. With L7 series and new high-end L8 series servo, the company expanded the downstream of advanced manufacturing such as 3C, photovoltaic and lithium battery, and is expected to maintain a year-on-year increase of 40% in 2022. 3) The revenue of control products in 2021 was 181 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.21%. The market of small and medium-sized motion control PLC and other products launched by the company in recent two years has expanded smoothly and achieved high-speed growth. It is expected to match with servo into a solution to improve the sales value and customer stickiness, and is optimistic about the follow-up development of PLC.
Focus on strategic industries and customers externally, and increase quality and efficiency of internal management reform. In 2021, the company’s expenses increased by 35.72% year-on-year to RMB 284 million, and the expense rate increased by 1.5 percentage points to 26.27%, which is due to the rapid growth of sales and R & D investment. In 2022, the company will continue to explore emerging industries. At the same time, the company will continue to promote process organization reform and equity incentive to mobilize personnel enthusiasm.
Profit forecast and investment rating: due to the high price of key raw materials and the great pressure in the downward period of the industry, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202223 was reduced to 245 million yuan (- 112 million yuan) / 330 million yuan (- 155 million yuan) respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 was 439 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12% / + 35% / + 33%, corresponding to 21 times, 15 times and 12 times of the current price PE respectively. The target price was given 20.25 yuan, corresponding to 25 times of PE in 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downturn, intensified competition, intensified impact of China’s epidemic, etc.
