\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 77 Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) )
B-end continues to develop new customers, C-end reduces costs and increases efficiency, and maintains the "buy" rating
The growth momentum of the company is good in 2022, and the proportion of b-end revenue continues to increase. After the acquisition of Jiale, customers develop rapidly, which will also promote the improvement of the company's performance under the synergistic effect. We maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 170 / 215 / 286 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.71 yuan, 0.89 yuan and 1.19 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 20.6/16.3/12.2 times. The company has a broad business space at the B2B end and patiently polish the brand at the B2C end, Steady development, cost reduction and efficiency increase will appear in 2022, and the "buy" rating will be maintained.
B2B's performance is expected to maintain a high growth of 2% - 30% in 20-30 years
By increasing the proportion of old customers, expanding new customers and adding and extending categories with higher added value, it is expected that the proportion of B2B business will further increase to 75% and the revenue growth rate will be 20% - 30% in 2022. Old customers: the business is fully recovered. It is expected that the growth rate of Nike and decathlon will be 20% - 30% in 2022, and the revenue of VF will double; New customers: Puma is expected to ship in 2022h2, and new customers Yeti and Homedepot are expected to start in 2023; New categories: expanded nikeaj series bags, puma, Decathlon golf bags and other high value-added categories. Capacity: the new capacity is mainly in Indonesia and other countries. In March 2022, phase 1 of Indonesia Industrial Park was put into operation to undertake the growth of b-end luggage orders. Phase 2 is under construction. At present, the capacity of Indonesian factories accounts for about 30%.
B2B outside the statement: Jiale's customer expansion is significant, and the synergy is obvious
At present, Jiale is still in the investment period, and key customers such as Adidas, puma, Li Ning and Anta have been basically overcome. We expect that Jiale will increase by 30% - 50% in 3-5 years from 2023. Jiale's garment OEM and kairun's OEM have strong synergy, which will bring new development to the company. Regular customers: UNIQLO and Jiale will further strengthen cooperation in the future, and it is expected to maintain a growth rate of 20% + in 2023 and beyond. New customers: achieve a good breakthrough. It is estimated that the order amount of Adidas / puma will be about 150 million yuan in 2022 and double in 2023; It is estimated that the orders of new brands such as Li Ning, Anta and FILA will be tens of millions in 2022, and the orders will continue to be large in the future.
B2C: patiently polish the brand, accumulate user reputation, and the loss reduction effect will appear after reducing cost and increasing efficiency
B2C business suffered a large loss in 2021. The company made strategic adjustments. Under the background of slower traffic and more expensive expenses, the company patiently polished the brand and strictly controlled fees. It is expected that the revenue growth rate in 2022q1 will be about 10% - 20%. The loss reduction measures in 2022q1 will begin to appear in Q2, the profitability will improve quarter by quarter, and the profit growth rate in the next three years will be greater than the revenue growth. By brand: mipai optimizes its product structure and improves its profitability. It is expected to continue to maintain steady growth in 2022; 90 points brand control costs and create brand tone. It is expected that the loss will be controlled at about 30 million in 2022.
Risk warning: the production capacity is lower than expected; The growth of orders slowed down.
