\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 180 Ninestar Corporation(002180) )
Investment logic:
The short and medium-term development logic of the company is the localization and globalization of Bento printer, and the competitive advantage brings the cost-effective advantage of production, marketing and technology brought by the integration of the whole industrial chain.
Views different from the market:
The market believes that the company has a low ceiling and limited development space.
We believe that:
The upgrading trend of the internal structure of the laser printer track has never stopped (high-speed + color), and the scale of the Chinese market is expanding;
With the synergy of the whole industry chain, Bento printer has continuously launched new high unit price printers such as A4 color and A3 copy, highlighting its cost performance advantage in Xinchuang and the global market. The proportion of centralized purchase shipments in Xinchuang market increased from 26.93% in 2019 to 48.9% in 2022, and the proportion of global market shipments is expected to increase from 8.63% in 2020 to 15%;
The profit of printing business depends more on the original consumables with high gross profit to form sustainable income. In the future, with the increase of Bento and Lexmark, the original consumables are expected to replace the printer and become an important growth point in the medium term;
IOT chip business is the second important growth curve of the company. At present, the company's chips have entered multiple core supply chains of automobiles, and contribute nearly half of the company's net profit due to high gross profit. We believe that IOT chips can bring new long-term incremental market space to the company, and the company's growth is not completely subject to the situation of the printing industry;
With the decline of the impact of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, the profitability of Lexmark itself has improved significantly and began to contribute net profits. We believe that the company's goodwill impairment risk, debt repayment risk and exchange rate risk are expected to be gradually controlled;
Investment suggestion: To sum up, we believe that with the steady recovery of Lexmark's profits and the support of bentu + chip two core high-quality businesses, the company's business is expected to achieve sustained growth. From 2021 to 2023, the revenue will be 22.7912915535.721 billion yuan (+ 7.93% / 27.92% / 22.52%), the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 11.63/18.8/27.4 billion yuan (the growth rate from 2022 to 2023 will be 61.63% / 45.7% respectively), EPS will be 0.98/1.33/1.94, the target total market value will be 93.072 billion yuan, and the target price will be 65.96 yuan, For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: covid-19 epidemic risk, goodwill impairment risk, exchange rate risk, increased industry competition risk, etc.
