\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 154 Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 4.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 460 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, of which the revenue of Q4 alone was 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 100 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.7%. The year-on-year decline of Q4 performance was mainly due to the high base of 20q4 brought by the adjustment of accounting policies for revenue recognition in the past.
The operating capacity was improved and the net interest rate was steadily rising. The gross profit margin in 21 years was 63.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5pp. The increase in gross profit margin was mainly due to the increase in the proportion of haggis with high gross profit margin superimposed by channel optimization. In terms of expense rate, the total rate of the company in 21 years was 48.7% (+ 0.4pp), and the expense rate remained stable, of which the sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate / R & D expense rate were 39.6% (+ 0PP) / 7.4% (+ 0.4pp) / – 0.1% (- 0.2pp) / 1.7% (0.1pp) respectively. The operating capacity continued to improve, with 237 days of inventory turnover in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 20 days. Under the combination, the overall net profit margin increased by 0.8pp to 10.4%.
Many brands go hand in hand and Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) / hazys has a brilliant performance. In 2021 Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) / hazzys / kemiche & lefeiye & TB / BAONIAO contributed revenue of 1.61 billion yuan (+ 26.3%) / 1.45 billion yuan (+ 17.8%) / 380 million yuan (+ 7%) / 840 million yuan (+ 6.6%) respectively. Multi brand matrix formation and coordinated development Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) performance gains mainly benefit from the improvement of single store performance brought by the optimization of products, the HAZZYS online access to the shaking platform, the expansion of sales channels, the offline channel to close down inefficient stores, the expansion of quality franchisees, and the steady growth. In addition, the Korean LFCORP signed new bags and products tiktok, which will contribute to the new growth point in the future.
Make concerted efforts in all channels to improve the efficiency of direct franchise stores. In 2021, the revenue of direct sales / franchise / group purchase / online / other modes was 1.76 billion yuan (+ 14.4%) / 810 million yuan (+ 38.3%) / 860 million yuan (+ 7.4%) / 680 million yuan (+ 13.2%) / 220 million yuan (+ 31.1%). The rapid growth of direct sales and franchise channel revenue mainly benefited from the continuous expansion of stores. By the end of 2021, the number of direct sales / franchise stores was 752 / 924 respectively, with a year-on-year net increase of 6 / 37. From the perspective of store efficiency, the store efficiency of direct / franchise stores reached 2347000 / 487000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.1% / 5.5% respectively. The channel reform has achieved remarkable results.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.4 yuan, 0.49 yuan and 0.58 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 10 times, 8 times and 7 times respectively. Considering the initial results of the company’s product rejuvenation transformation, the simultaneous progress of multiple brands, the continuous improvement of channel efficiency and the steady growth of performance, the company is given a 22-year 13 times valuation, the target price is 5.2 yuan, and the “buy” rating is given for the first time.
Risk warning: the risk of the epidemic affecting the terminal demand; The risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; Risks of intensified industry competition; The risk of store expansion falling short of expectations.
