\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 131 Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) )
Matters:
The company released the annual report of 2021: the annual revenue was 969 million yuan (+ 52.61%), the attributable net profit was 191 million yuan (+ 48.70%), and the attributable net profit after deduction was 177 million yuan (+ 49.41%). In the upper half of the previously announced interval. Dividend plan: it is proposed to distribute cash of 5.30 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares and increase 4 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders with capital reserve.
Ping An View:
Both front-end and back-end businesses have made efforts to achieve ideal growth
The company achieved an annual revenue of 969 million yuan (+ 52.61%), with an actual growth of more than 55.98% after excluding the impact of exchange rate. Both front-end and back-end businesses have achieved rapid growth, including the front-end molecular building blocks and tool compounds business with a revenue of 545 million yuan (+ 57.59%), and the back-end API and intermediate business with a revenue of 417 million yuan (+ 46.32%), among which the innovative drug project has increased significantly.
The annual gross profit margin of the company's main business is 54.28% (- 2.58pp), of which the gross profit margin of front-end business is 68.28% (- 1.98pp) and that of back-end business is 35.98% (- 4.62pp). The decline of gross profit margin is mainly due to two factors: (1) the appreciation of RMB and the impact of exchange rate difference on gross profit margin is estimated to be 2-3pp; (2) The back-end business is actively transformed and the innovative drug business is overweight. The early project volume of innovative drugs is small and the gross profit margin is low. It is estimated that in the next two years, as the scale of the company's innovative drug projects increases, the company's overall profitability will also improve. The overall expense rate of the company has increased, including a slight decrease in the sales expense rate (7.18%, -0.54pp), an increase in the management expense rate due to team expansion (11.77%, + 1.40pp), and a slight increase in the R & D expense rate (10.67%, + 0.47pp).
The front-end categories expanded rapidly, and the back-end projects continued to advance
Rich varieties and in line with the direction of global pharmaceutical innovation are the core competitiveness of the molecular block and tool compound business. Therefore, the company always focuses on adding more, newer and more unique product categories. By the end of 2021, the company had 42000 kinds of molecular blocks and 16000 kinds of tool compounds, a significant increase compared with 30000 / 12000 when it was listed. The company intervenes in the field of biological reagents through ouchuang, and accumulates varieties to meet the increasing development of macromolecular drugs.
In terms of API, the company's API project continues to be promoted, and some important API products have achieved validation batch production during the reporting period. It is expected to usher in large-scale supply in the near future. In terms of cdmo, the company strengthened the development of innovative drug projects in the second half of the year, and the total number of projects in hand reached 173, a significant increase compared with 127 in the middle of the year.
New laboratories and factories will be built soon, laying a foundation for subsequent growth
The overall capacity of the company was tight before listing. Considering the rapid growth demand of the industry, the company is stepping up additional capacity, and a considerable part of it is expected to be put into use in 2022.
In terms of laboratories, Hefei industrial base covers an area of 14000 square meters. Hefei biological reagent R & D center has been opened, and Hefei Chemical R & D center is expected to be opened in the first half of the year; Yantai new drug creation and R & D service base phase I 8800 square meters can also be put into use in the first half of the year; Although the recent epidemic continues in Shanghai, the new drug creation service laboratory used to support cdmo is expected to be completed in the first half of the year. In terms of factories, Anhui Ma'anshan production base is the core of the company's production autonomy, and the factory is expected to start trial operation in 2022q3. The use of its own production base can not only improve the gross profit margin of Haoyuan's back-end business, but also be of great help to the undertaking of cdmo business.
Maintain the "recommended" rating: investment in scientific research + industrial innovation continues to increase, and Haoyuan fully enjoys relevant benefits with the help of two sectors. In recent years, the company has further increased the pace of expansion and increased investment from multiple dimensions such as product coverage and production capacity. Some of the investment has begun to contribute to the growth momentum. It is expected that the company will be able to maintain rapid growth and greatly improve its various capabilities in the next few years. Considering the amortization factor of equity incentive, adjust and add the forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.64, 5.66 and 8.53 yuan (formerly 3.94 and 5.88 yuan from 2022 to 2023), maintain the high growth expectation of the income side and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: if the customer's needs cannot be met, the company may lose orders or even customers; There are uncertainties in the R & D and sales of drugs. If the progress is lower than expected, it may affect the profitability of the company; During the period of high-speed expansion, if the improvement of the company's management ability can not keep up with the rhythm, the operation quality may be affected.
