\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 32 New Trend International Logis-Tech Co.Ltd(300532) )
The company is a leading enterprise in China's smart logistics. In 2021, orders and performance ushered in large-scale growth
The company is a leading enterprise of smart logistics in China. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, new orders of 3.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118%, and unconfirmed revenue orders at the end of the period reached 3.802 billion yuan.
Long term logic: China's smart logistics penetration is low, and the industry boom is upward under the general trend of digital economy
Since the end of 2014, the number of China Association of automated logistics technology has continued to grow to 5390, according to the China Association of automated logistics technology. Compared with developed countries, the number of automated three-dimensional warehouses in the United States, Japan and Germany is 20000 +, 38000 and 10000 + respectively. Meanwhile, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the digital economy surged and the smart logistics industry was booming. According to the smart research consulting report, the scale of China's smart logistics market was nearly 600 billion yuan in 2020 and is expected to exceed trillion yuan by 2025.
Emerging areas: tobacco business has moved from logistics automation to industrial digitization, opening up new business value
The company has strong customer resources, brand advantages and industry practice in the tobacco industry. Since 2021, the company has won the bid for the "cleaning code" and "QR code" related projects of the tobacco corporation. Only three manufacturers have been recruited for both projects, and the company is the only manufacturer that has won the bid for both projects at the same time. The new project is an important part of the Internet platform of tobacco industry, with strong software attributes. According to the bidding scheme, the new project is expected to be completed in the next three years. Corresponding to the market demand of nationwide logistics centers and specialty stores, the value of the new digital business is very high.
Emerging industries: the company has achieved remarkable results in the layout of the new energy industry, with abundant orders and promising growth
In 2014, the company began to lay out its new energy business. In 2021, the new energy business achieved a revenue of 760 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.2%, new orders of 2.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 465%, and unconfirmed revenue orders of 2.41 billion yuan at the end of the period. According to the company's disclosure and exchange minutes, the new energy business project cycle is 4-6 months, and the company's short-term revenue growth is expected to be highly deterministic. In the long run, the incremental value of vehicle logistics and project operation and maintenance is also strong.
Profit forecast and valuation
Smart logistics is a leading enterprise with a long-term perspective, the industry boom is upward and the market space is broad; From a short-term perspective, there are abundant orders on hand and the performance growth can be expected. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 160 million yuan, 250 million yuan and 400 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 23, 14 and 9 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and rated as "buy".
Risk tips
The macro-economy affects the downstream demand, the new bid winning and landing of the tobacco industry are not expected, and the competition in the new energy industry is intensified
