\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 884 Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) )
The company issued the annual report of 2021, and the performance was in line with expectations; The company's negative electrode material production capacity continues to expand and the integrated layout continues to improve; The polarizer business operates well and continues to contribute to the performance increment; Maintain the overweight rating.
Key points supporting rating
In 2021, the profit increased significantly by 2320% year-on-year, which is in line with the expectation: the company released the annual report of 2021, and the annual revenue reached 20.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 151.94%; Achieved a profit of 3.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 232000%; Deduct the non net profit of 1.885 billion yuan, and turn the loss year-on-year. The company had previously expected to achieve a profit of RMB 3.100-3.390 billion in 2021. The company's performance was close to the upper limit of the forecast and in line with expectations.
Expected 2022q1 performance growth of 148% - 181%: the company previously released 2022q1 performance forecast, with an expected profit of 750850 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 148% - 181%; Deduct 560600 million yuan of non-profit, with a year-on-year increase of 99% - 113%.
The negative electrode business volume increased rapidly and the integrated layout was continuously improved: in 2021, the sales volume of negative electrode materials of the company was 101000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 71.27%. The fast charging products achieved rapid volume, and the proportion of shipments increased to about 50%; The gross profit margin increased by 2.25 percentage points year-on-year to 28.62%; The profit was 525 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 199.91%, and the net profit per ton increased by 64%. By the end of 2021, the company has 120000 tons of finished cathode materials and 42000 tons of graphitization capacity. The capacity of 60000 tons of negative electrode and 52000 tons of graphitization in Baotou phase II is expected to reach the capacity in the second half of 2022. The first phase of Sichuan 200000 tons integrated base is planned to be put into trial production by the end of 2022. With the increase of self supply proportion of graphitization, we expect the overall cost of negative electrode materials of the company to be further reduced.
The polarizer business operates well and continues to contribute to the performance increment: from February to December 2021, the company sold 113 million square meters of polarizers, achieved a revenue of 9.944 billion yuan, a profit of 1.197 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 24.59%. At present, the company has 8 polarizer front-end production lines (including 2 original wucang production lines in South Korea). In the first half of the year, the company successively started project investment in Zhangjiagang and Mianyang. After completion, the company will have 12 global leading production lines, and the capacity advantage will be further consolidated.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company's 2021 annual report and industry changes, we adjusted the company's predicted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to 1.56/2.00/2.41 yuan (the original diluted earnings per share forecast from 2022 to 2023 was 0.98/1.23 yuan), corresponding to a P / E ratio of 15.1/11.8/9.8 times; Maintain the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The demand for new energy vehicles does not meet expectations; Price competition exceeds expectations; LCD polarizer business did not meet expectations; Consumer electronics demand does not meet expectations; New energy vehicle policy risk; The impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations.
