\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 436 Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) )
Main points:
Model, small batch PCB leader, IC board carrying business has the advantage of card position
The company’s main business focuses on the PCB industry chain, focusing on PCB and semiconductor.
① PCB sample and small batch business: the company has the world’s leading multi variety and rapid delivery ability. The average number of PCB order varieties is 25000 / month, which is in the leading position in the industry. The business extends from the sample express at the supporting customer’s R & D end to the batch operation at the mass production end, covering the whole industrial chain of R & D – Design – production – SMT surface mount – sales.
② the semiconductor business focuses on the field of IC packaging substrate and semiconductor test board, and focuses on the localization breakthrough in the field of semiconductor materials. IC carrier board and semiconductor test board are mainly used in the sealing and testing of integrated circuits. Seizing the opportunity of domestic substitution of IC packaging and testing materials, the company launched the packaging substrate project in 2012. The company has an early layout in the field of IC packaging substrate and a large amount of early investment, which has the advantage of card position.
High prosperity in upstream and downstream, domestic substitution and blessing, and IC carrier board ride the wind and waves
1. The downstream demand is strong, and the IC carrier industry is in short supply. Benefiting from the strong demand of downstream applications, the prosperity of IC carrier industry is high. According to prismark’s prediction, from 2020 to 2026, the scale of the global IC carrier market will increase from US $10.2 billion to US $21.4 billion, with a CAGR of 13.2%, which is the track with the fastest compound growth rate of PCB sub categories. At present, the capacity of loading sector is in short supply. Many large loading sector manufacturers said that their orders have been reserved for a few years. The major carrier manufacturers have increased their production, but the release of production capacity will take some time, and the IC carrier will still be tight in the short term. ② The expansion and overweight of upstream Fabs has huge market space in China. Chinese wafer factories have increased their production. According to semi, from 2021 to 2022, the number of new wafer factories in China accounted for 1 / 3 of the world. With the release of production capacity of Chinese chip enterprises such as Changjiang storage and Hefei Changxin, it will bring a lot of sealing and testing demand. According to the data of China Commercial Industry Research Institute, the market scale of China’s IC carrier board will steadily increase from 15.8 billion yuan to 20.6 billion yuan from 2017 to 2022, and the market scale will increase steadily. ③ The moat of the loading track is deep, there are few Chinese players, and the localization rate is only 4%. At present, only a few companies in China can mass produce BT carrier sectors and have a stable source of customers. ABF carrier sector production capacity is more scarce. Only Chinese companies, Shennan Circuits Co.Ltd(002916) , Zhuhai Yueya are deployed. With the increasing demand of PC, server and 5g base station for high computing power IC, the supply of ABF carrier continues to fall short of demand. Xinxing electronics has said that the shortage of ABF carrier sectors may not be alleviated until 2025. At present, IC carrier board has long-term tight global supply + domestic alternative dual logic, which is a very scarce high-quality track in the field of PCB.
The dual layout test board outside China is a perfect combination of harbor and Guangzhou base
In 2015, XINGSEN obtained the test board ticket through the acquisition of harbor. Harbor has an advantageous position in the global semiconductor test board overall solution field, enabling XINGSEN to have the global leading one-stop service ability of scheme design and manufacturing in this segment industry, and establish the leading position of China’s test board. The company’s Guangzhou factory is currently expanding the capacity of semiconductor test boards. The goal of expansion is to build the largest professional test board factory in China and provide capacity support for harbor.
Investment advice
We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 621, 721 and 892 million yuan, with the corresponding P / E ratio of 21, 18 and 15 times. The company is given a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk tips
Capacity expansion is less than expected, industry competition intensifies, and downstream demand is less than expected.
